Welcome to Economic Insights, your weekly deep dive into the major projects and policy shifts shaping the Canadian economy.

Stories we are following:

– Pipeline news.

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith postponed this morning’s planned news conference on the West Coast pipeline proposal to later today, and the Calgary Petroleum Club tells iPolitics that Energy Minister Brian Jean cancelled his own appearance to discuss the proposal late Tuesday evening. The news conference is now scheduled for 6 p.m. MT, according to the Prime Minister’s itinerary. 

– B.C. deal.

British Columbia has secured a sweeping package of federal funding under a new Canada-B.C. agreement signed today. The deal promises billions for the Roberts Bank Terminal expansion and the North Coast Transmission Line, and has Premier David Eby saying the province will act in good faith regarding Alberta’s pipeline proposal.

– Locking in federal dollars.

Northwest Territories Deputy Premier Caroline Wawzonek says national interest designation under the Building Canada Act won’t necessarily speed up the independent environmental review process for the Mackenzie Valley Highway, but argues it locks in sustained federal attention, and with it, federal budgeting. 

– Court challenge.

Further south, Treaty 3 Grand Chief Francis Kavanaugh has put Ottawa on notice over its move to designate a nuclear waste repository in northwestern Ontario, warning in an open letter that the federal government “cannot legislate itself out of its constitutional duties” and that his organization “has options.”

By the numbers:

July 22: The new deadline for stakeholders to weigh in on Ottawa’s proposed overhaul of federal major-project reviews, extended from an initial 30-day window after a high volume of submissions from industry, provinces, First Nations and environmental groups. Legislation is still expected this fall.

$10 billion: The “order of magnitude” figure Prime Minister Mark Carney cited for the Roberts Bank expansion — which he stressed isn’t a final investment decision, but reflects broader project scope, including container and bulk capacity, environmental protections and possible additional infrastructure. 

4 years: The possible delay to the Mackenzie Valley Highway’s approval process if the Norman Wells to Inuvik segment requires a separate environmental assessment, according to Sahtu MLA Danny McNeely, who is urging the review board to adopt a “corridor-based” approach that would fold the second segment into the existing assessment process.

Major projects watch:

– The Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO) is shaking up the requirements under Window 2 of its Long-Term 2 (LT2) Request for Proposals to address recurring issues, including the number of contracted projects that never reach commercial operation. The operator is weighing a rule that would let it bar proponents from future procurements for three years or longer — potentially extending to affiliated companies — if it decides they weren’t acting in “good standing” during a prior process, according to a BLG analysis. The bar for what counts as good standing is still being worked out, but the IESO has flagged failing to execute an awarded contract as one likely example.

– Bloomberg notes this week that Alberta’s pipeline proposal presents a hard question for Canada’s energy companies: Can they produce enough oil to fill it? The economics of pumping more oil out of western Canada look less attractive today than just a few weeks ago, with global crude prices declining toward prewar levels. Charles St-Arnaud, chief economist at Alberta’s Servus Credit Union, tells the outlet shareholders will decide whether to go ahead with the investment, and If bigger capital expenditure is at the expense of lower dividends, “it’s not clear those shareholders are willing to go there.” 

– A standout quote in Carney’s “Forward Guidance” video this week: “The energy transition will be a source of great stability in the long run, but while it’s underway, it can equally be a source of disruption. No country is better positioned to thrive in both eras than Canada, and we need not allow the transition from one era to another to pull us apart.”

– The Impact Assessment Agency verdict is in: the Springpole Gold Project in Ontario is not likely to cause significant adverse environmental effects and may go ahead, subject to conditions. The project, an open-pit gold and silver mine and on-site metal mill, located 110 kilometres northeast of Red Lake, Ontario, represents a capital investment of nearly a billion dollars. The announcement marks the 14th project to receive a final decision so far this year.

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