Mayor Mark Sutcliffe’s support has slipped over the past four months, but his grip on Ottawa’s mayoral race has only strengthened as his challengers divide the opposition vote, according to a new poll.

Commissioned by Ottawa Compass and iPolitics, Liaison Strategies surveyed a random sample of 1,000 Ottawa residents from July 17 to July 19, 2026. For the total sample, the margin of error is plus and minus 3.09 percentage points.

Liaison Strategies Principal David Valentin said Sutcliffe’s declining vote share masks a race that’s becoming increasingly favourable for the incumbent.

“The big winner is Mark Sutcliffe, who went from having a very narrow lead to having a much larger lead, even though his own support dropped,” David Valentin, principal at Liaison Strategies said in an interview with iPolitics. “Losing is the new winning.”

Among decided voters, Sutcliffe led with 36 per cent support. Homebuilder Alex Lawson at 26 per cent, double the support since May, followed by City Councillor Jeff Leiper at 25 per cent.

Economist Neil Saravanamuttoo also saw a significant climb from last month’s eight per cent to 11 per cent.

Although Sutcliffe’s support has fallen from 46 per cent in April to 36 per cent, Valentin said the mayor has strengthened his position because his closest challengers have failed to consolidate support.

“We’re seeing Leiper continuing to go down, and we’re seeing Lawson continuing to go up,” Valentin said.

Valentin said Leiper’s declining support raises questions about whether the councillor’s more cautious campaign strategy is resonating with voters. He argued that while campaigns often rely on sharp contrasts to gain attention, Leiper is running a more restrained race, while Saravanamuttoo has largely avoided becoming a target for rival campaign as his support climbed.

Aside from Sutcliffe’s lead, Valentin also pointed to Lawson, who first polled at 14 per cent in May, appears to be extending beyond his original base.

Undecided voters rate has also gone down since last month from 37 per cent to 34 per cent.

City approval rating

While the ballot numbers tell one story, the mayor’s personal ratings may also suggest he has a firmer political this month.

This month’s polling also showed slight increase in Sutcliffe’s approval rating from 41 per cent to 45 per cent.

The poll also found more residents believe Ottawa is headed in the right direction than last month, another sign of improving sentiment toward the incumbent despite his lower ballot support.

Valentin said one of the more notable findings was the changing lists of priorities for Ottawa voters.

Transit fell as a top concern, dropping from 18 per cent in June to 11 per cent in July, while concern over crime more than doubled from seven to 15 per cent. Traffic also climbed from 13 to 17 per cent.

He added that while some of the month-to-month movement could reflect differences in the survey sample, the rise in traffic concerns also aligns with more residents returning to the office.