A year and a half after Canadians started ditching their trips south of the border, at least some of them are hitting the road again.

In June, Canadian resident return trips from the U.S. inched up 3.2 per cent compared to the same month last year, according to new data from Statistics Canada.

It’s the third month in a row that inbound travel from the U.S. by Canadians has increased, following a rise of 9.5 per cent in May and 1.4 per cent in April.

The uptick was fuelled by an increase in car travel, with 5.2 per cent more Canadians returning from the U.S. via car compared to the previous June. By air, return travel from the States for June decreased 3.8 per cent year-over-year.

But the small car-travel jump doesn’t bring U.S. travel by Canadians anywhere close to normal levels — so while some in the U.S. tourism industry are hopeful, it might not give a major boost to businesses any time soon.

Compared to June 2024 — before trade war tensions and annexation threats by U.S. President Donald Trump pushed Canadians to ditch U.S. trip plans — Canadian return travel from the U.S. for last month was down a whopping 28.7 per cent.

Wayne Smith, professor and director of Toronto Metropolitan University’s Institute for Hospitality and Tourism Research, sees the uptick as a slight “normalization” of travel by Canadians to the U.S., rather than a sign that Canadians are abandoning the “elbows up” movement.

“I think this is pretty much our new normal,” Smith said of the current rate of travel south of the border, given the number of Canadians visiting the U.S. has hovered persistently lower for the last year and a half.

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‘Cautious optimism’ for U.S. tourism industry

Kristy Kennedy, vice-president of marketing and operations at the North Country Chamber of Commerce, says the figures track with what she’s seeing locally in New York State near the border with Quebec.

She says some local businesses have noticed a slight uptick in travel from Canadians. And Kennedy herself had heard more people speaking French in public — something she didn’t hear a lot of last year, when many Canadians chose to stay home or go elsewhere.

“It was quiet for sure, and I think everybody who lives here, whether you are in hospitality or not, you definitely noticed it and realized it was missed,” Kennedy said.

The Chamber of Commerce has been running an ad campaign since last year in an effort to show that they’re committed to mending relations between citizens on both sides of the border, according to Kennedy.

“I know it’s going to take some time and it’s going to take some work as any relationship does, whether it’s two people or two countries,” Kennedy said, adding she’s optimistic Canadians and Americans will get there eventually.

Amir Eylon, president and CEO of travel consultancy Longwoods International, says the recent increase in cross-border travel could be partially due to some of those campaigns paying off.

He suspects those with a financial incentive attached — like a 15 per cent off discount for Canadians, or on-par exchange rate offers — might have been especially attractive to travellers looking for a good deal.

The soaring cost of jet fuel that’s increased airfare could also be a factor. Eylon predicts some folks who wouldn’t have otherwise put a U.S. destination at the top of their list might have picked one anyway over a trip to Europe, for example, because it allowed them to drive and save money.

And another possible reason behind the June boost? The World Cup co-hosted by Canada, the U.S. and Mexico. Eylon says the tournament could have prompted some Canadian soccer fans to head South to watch their favourite teams play in person.

“I think the combination of all those factors is what’s most likely driving the good numbers for June,” Eylon said.

He says the pattern over the last three months is fuelling some cautious optimism in his industry.

“It’s too early to tell if the tide has really turned significantly yet,” Eylon said. But, “Three straight months of growth, even though it’s very incremental … it’s still growth.”

Still, TMU’s Smith isn’t so sure the minor trend will give American tourism businesses a bump.

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New data suggests Canadians are packing their bags for destinations other than the U.S., with Buenos Aires, Osaka, Japan, and Copenhagen all seeing 100 per cent increase in spending by Canadian visitors.

Travellers who spend the most and stay the longest are those that come by plane, according to Smith — and the uptick in cross-border travel has all been in trips by car, while air travel by Canadians coming back from the U.S. fell year-over-year in each of the past three months.

Plus, at least some of those visits to the U.S. would likely be business trips, which Smith says wouldn’t give the same kind of tourism boost. (It’s unclear just how many trips are for business versus pleasure, as this Statistics Canada data out today doesn’t break down the reasons for travel.)

In all, Smith says shifting travel habits as well as the weak Canadian dollar are both obstacles that will make it more difficult for the U.S. to win back Canadian travellers.

“If I was looking at it from the U.S. perspective, these would still be very troubling numbers,” Smith said.