The Parliamentary Budget Office estimates building a high speed rail network between Toronto and Quebec City, without a stop in Kingston, could cost between $75 billion and $113 billion. 

The government often cites figures between $60 billion and $90 billion in 2024 dollars. The project’s estimated costs have drawn the ire of opposition parties, including the Conservatives and the Bloc Québécois, who have warned of cost overruns.

By connecting Toronto, Ottawa, Montréal and Quebec City with trains travelling up to 300 kilometres an hour, Alto promises to cut the Montréal-Toronto trip to about three hours and offer a faster alternative to driving, flying or the slower existing rail service in Canada’s most densely populated corridor.

The report by the PBO is meant to provide an independent assessment of the potential construction costs, as requested by the Senate finance committee.

The PBO analysis draws on the regulatory process for similar European projects and assumes that recent legislation to speed up land acquisition will help keep construction costs down. Bill C-15, the budget implementation act, created the High-Speed Rail Network Act, which lets the government expropriate land and register notices of prohibition on work for Alto before an impact assessment decision, and adjusts the usual federal expropriation process for the project.

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The office is also pouring cold water on the economic benefits tied to construction. A note published Thursday says the initial Ottawa-Montréal segment will provide a “modest economic stimulus” of $1.8 billion in 2029 and $2.0 billion by 2033, with job gains rising from about 4,300 to 9,000 during construction. 

The note also says that adding a stop in Kingston – an idea the federal government floated earlier this summer – would increase uncertainty around the project, “due to the counter-balancing effects of easier geography for construction but higher density of regional populations and greater ecological sensitivity.” 

Parliamentary Budget Officer Annette Ryan said “while Canada’s legislative framework is intended to avoid the major cost-overrun drivers we’ve seen in comparable American and British projects, Canada’s route geography has some significant cost escalators — most notably tunnelling in and around Montreal, and the complexities of the Canadian Shield portion.”

The report is the first of a two-part assessment on the viability of the line, with another expected to focus on ridership levels. 

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The Ottawa-Montréal segment, where construction could begin as early as 2029, could serve as a “test case” for building expertise and assembling teams across Quebec and Ontario.

Public consultations across the projected trajectory of the Alto rail – set to cover a 1,000km stretch between Toronto and Quebec City – began earlier this year.

More to come…