Voters head to the polls in three closely-watched byelections as a new tariff deadline looms


A look ahead at the week in federal politics.

With just over a week left on the clock before Canada is set to roll out retaliatory tariffs targeting billions of dollars in U.S. goods, there’s no word yet on when — or, for that matter, under what terms — Canadian and American negotiators could return to the bargaining table, but more details are starting to emerge on exactly how — and why — the most recent round of high-stakes trade talks went off the rails.

“Canada’s chief U.S. trade negotiator is disputing several claims made by American officials about why trade talks fell apart last week, namely that the Canadian side brought forward last-minute demands on autos and that U.S. negotiators weren’t interested in French language discoverability rules,” CBC News reported last week, citing an “exclusive interview” with Janice Charette that aired on CBC’s The House over the weekend.

“Canada has been resolute throughout these negotiations that we were talking about the entirety of our automotive sector,” Charette told the broadcaster.

“Charette’s comments clash with those made by U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, who told reporters Thursday that the Canadians only brought up tariff relief on medium- and heavy-duty trucks at the last minute — and further alleged the Canadians did so to kill the deal,” it adds.

“Charette refrained from calling Lutnick wrong, but said the Canadians raised the issue on ‘Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday,’” and pointed out that Lutnick “was not at the negotiating table.”

Charette’s recollection of events seems to be very much in line with what iPolitics heard from its industry sources last week.

“Canadian negotiators believed the Americans’ offer to reduce auto tariffs from 25 to 15 per cent applied to all vehicles, but found out on Friday the U.S. offer excluded heavy duty vehicles, such as pickup trucks manufactured in Oshawa and eventually, Oakville,” iPolitics reported Friday.

“One source told iPolitics that Canadian negotiators made it clear in earlier talks that the reduced tariff rate had to apply to all vehicles, labelling it as a ‘very big issue,’ (and) said the heavy vehicle duty was one of several changes made after U.S. Trade Representative Jameison Greer presented the terms of the prospective deal to Lutnick.”

Also on the radar: A trio of closely-watched byelections that, while unlikely to trigger a significant shift in the parliamentary power dynamics, could nevertheless provide an early glimpse of how the latest cross-border developments are playing out on the ground.

After a rare mid-summer campaign, voters in North Vancouver — Capilano, B.C., Beaches — East York, Ont., and Chicoutimi – Le Fjord, Que. — are poised to fill the vacancies created by the respective departures of longtime Liberal MPs Jonathan Wilkinson and Nathaniel Erskine-Smith, as well as now former four-term-and-counting Conservative MP Richard Martel, who stepped down earlier this summer after he was appointed to the Senate. (Monday p.m.)

As Canadian Press notes, both the West Coast and Greater Toronto Area ridings “are considered fairly safe Liberal seats,” with little chance of an upset, but in Quebec, “where voters had elected a Conservative four consecutive times, the Tories may have a difficult time holding their ground,” the wire service predicts.

“The rural Quebec riding, about 200 kilometres north of Quebec City, was a tight race in April 2025. (Martel), a former junior hockey coach who won four straight elections for the Conservatives in the area, narrowly edged out candidates from the Bloc Québécois and the Liberals.”

Carrying the banner for the Liberals this time around is Daniel Gobeil, a dairy farmer and former head of the Quebec milk producers association, who, as former Bloc Québécois MP Kristina Michaud explained to iPolitics readers last week, was a “strategically significant choice,” given Carney’s promise that “Canada’s supply management system would not be sacrificed in negotiations with Washington,” she observes.

“It was a good catch — but potentially a double-edged sword,” she notes.

“Farmers in the riding later learned that the government was prepared to consider administrative changes related to supply management. The details remained vague, and the proposed changes ultimately never materialized. But politically, that may not matter. The mere suggestion that supply management could be part of the negotiations was enough to plant a seed of doubt: is the system really safe in Carney’s hands?”

Fast forward past the prime minister’s decision to pull his negotiating team out of the talks, however, and “the collapse of the talks may have unexpectedly turned that vulnerability into an advantage,” Michaud contends.

“An Angus Reid poll found that 85 percent of Quebecers approved of Carney’s decision to suspend the talks rather than accept a bad deal with the United States. That gives the Chicoutimi—Le Fjord byelection a significance that extends well beyond the riding. It could become the first electoral test of whether Quebecers see the failure to reach a deal as a failure by Carney — or as evidence that he is willing to stand up to Donald Trump.”

In a bid to keep the riding in the blue column, the Conservatives have nominated local law professor Régis Gaudreault, while the Bloc Québécois are hoping one-time Parti Québécois candidate Caroline Dubé can score an upset win in what is expected to be a tight three-way race.

Hitting the pre-Labour Day ministerial circuit: Artificial Intelligence Minister Evan Solomon, whose portfolio also includes FedDev Ontario, joins Hamilton-area Liberal MPs John-Paul Danko, Lisa Hepfner and Aslam Rana to share the details of new federal support earmarked to help local businesses “respond to tariff pressures.” (Monday a.m.)

Back in the precinct, Canadian Health Coalition chair Jason MacLean teams up with representatives of Friends of Medicare Alberta, Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives B.C. and the Ontario Health Coalition to promote the upcoming “Day of Action against Alberta’s Bill 11” — which, as the advisory notes, is slated to come into force on Sept. 1 — as “part of a pan Canadian campaign by health coalitions and other public health care defenders to raise our collective voices in opposition to Bill 11 and two-tier American-style health care,” as well as urge the federal government to “stop the implementation” of the provincial law and “enforce the accessibility and comprehensiveness criteria of the Canada Health Act.” (Monday a.m.)

Elsewhere in the capital, Nishnawbe Aski Nation Grand Chief Alvin Fiddler, other First Nations leaders and family members of the late Barbara Kentner hit the West Block press theatre to “demand accountability following the decision to grant full parole to the man convicted of manslaughter in her death,” which “has renewed serious concerns for Barbara’s family and First Nations Leadership across the Ontario region,” the advisory notes. (Monday a.m.)

Rounding out the pre-Labour Day long weekend lineup, the annual Indo-Pacific Chiefs of Defense conference will bring “senior military leaders, practitioners and regional experts” to Victoria, B.C., “to “discuss regional security issues, including non-defence and non-military perspectives,” and “strengthen mutual understanding, cooperation and interoperability among allies and partners,” with Chief of Defence Staff Jennie Carignan and United States (U.S.) Pacific Command lead Samuel J. Paparo serving as co-hosts of the three-day meet-up. (Monday through Wednesday)



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