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In today’s edition, Sahil Kapur explores how the Iran war is further clouding Republicans’ prospects in this fall’s elections. Plus, we dive into President Donald Trump’s feud with the pope.

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— Adam Wollner

Trump’s Iran war deepens the GOP’s midterm challenges

Analysis by Sahil Kapur

Congress returns to Washington today from a two-week Easter recess to a growing to-do list, including a showdown over the war in Iran that carries implications for the 2026 midterm elections.

Republicans have previously voted down Democratic proposals to end the war. Now, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., is vowing to force another vote this week to stop President Donald Trump from waging military action unless he gets approval from Congress first.

For many Republican lawmakers, it’s not an easy vote. The war has sparked a backlash in U.S. public opinion that threatens to further tilt the political environment away from Republicans.

Apart from the deployment of military assets and personnel as well as the death toll, the war has created economic fallout: Iran responded to the U.S.-Israel strikes by effectively shutting down the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial waterway through which about 20% of the world’s oil transits.

The price of gas at the pump has risen substantially for ordinary Americans. There are also threats to farmers and food security: Higher diesel prices disrupt supply chains, and fertilizer prices are rising because as much as 30% of the world’s fertilizer supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz.

Americans are rendering a comprehensively negative verdict on Trump over the Iran war, according to a new CBS News/YouGov poll conducted April 8-10.

• 36% approve of Trump’s handling of the situation in Iran, while 64% disapprove.
• 60% disapprove of the U.S. taking military action in Iran, while 40% approve.
• 59% say the military conflict with Iran is going badly for the U.S., while 41% say it’s going well.
• 66% say the administration has not clearly explained the U.S. goals of the war in Iran, while 34% say it has.
• 59% say they don’t have confidence in Trump to make the right decisions regarding Iran, while 41% say they have confidence.
• 62% say Trump “does not have a clear plan” for the Iran war, while 38% say he does.

For the time being, as U.S.’s attempts to reach a peace deal with Iran falter, Trump is scrambling to challenge Iran’s chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz by sending the U.S. Navy to the area. Experts on the region warn that Iran has asymmetric advantages that allow it to cheaply blow up vessels that carry millions of dollars of oil, making it difficult for the U.S. or anybody else to guarantee safe passage. The Strait of Hormuz was open prior to the war, and it represents one of Iran’s main avenues for revenge.

Meanwhile, Trump was less than reassuring when asked yesterday on Fox News if the price of oil will come down before the midterm elections.

“I hope so. I mean, I think so. It could be, it could be, or the same, or maybe a little bit higher,” Trump told host Maria Bartiromo. “But it should be around the same. I think this won’t be that much longer.”

For subscribers: How the AI and crypto industries are pouring tens of millions of dollars into elections

An NBC News analysis of campaign finance reports shows the web of super PACs backing — and going negative — on candidates with funds from big-name executives and companies. Read more →

➡️ More for subscribers:

• How JD Vance, skeptical of Trump’s war with Iran, came to lead the peace talks, by Jonathan Allen and Henry J. Gomez
• Why Republicans are defying Trump and refusing to get rid of the Senate filibuster, by Sahil Kapur

Trump vs. the pope

Pope Leo XIV hit back after President Donald Trump sharply criticized the first American leader of the Catholic Church as “WEAK on crime” and “terrible for Foreign Policy,” Claudio Lavanga, Tara Prindiville and Raquel Coronell Uribe report.

Leo, who has been unusually direct in his criticism of the U.S. and Israel’s war with Iran, told NBC News that he had “no fear of the Trump administration” and vowed to keep up his appeals for peace that he said were rooted in the gospel.

Trump leveled his criticism of the pope in remarks to reporters and on social media.

“I don’t think he’s doing a very good job. He likes crime, I guess,” the president told NBC News at Joint Base Andrews, Maryland, last night. “I’m not a big fan of Pope Leo,” Trump added.”

Post #2: Trump separately posted a picture last night portraying himself as a Christ-like savior that was later removed from his Truth Social account, Megan Lebowitz and Gabe Gutierrez report.

The post prompted controversy from several high-profile conservatives, including former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, a Trump-ally-turned-critic.

“It’s more than blasphemy,” she said on X, reacting to Trump’s post. “It’s an Antichrist spirit.”

Asked by a reporter whether he posted the picture, Trump said, “I did post it, and I thought it was me as a doctor and had to do with Red Cross.”

“Only the fake news could come up with that one, so I just heard about it, and I said, ‘How did they come up with that?’” Trump said of comparisons between the image and Jesus. “It’s supposed to be me as a doctor.”

The religious vote: The twin episodes could test Trump’s relationship with a key portion of his base at a time when his overall poll numbers are sagging. Catholic voters went for Trump 55% to 43% in the 2024 election after they split between him and Joe Biden in 2020, according to Pew Research Center. Among protestants, 62% voted for Trump in the last election, including 81% of white evangelicals.

That’s all From the Politics Desk for now. Today’s newsletter was compiled by Adam Wollner.

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