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It has been months since we’ve shared news about airfare that wasn’t downright depressing.
But, finally, we’re starting to see some encouraging signals that flight prices may be coming back to Earth … at least a little.
According to the latest data from our partners at Points Path, flights for August are currently cheaper than they were a few weeks ago — especially for travelers hoping to fly internationally.
And the eye-popping increase in airfare that we saw this spring has noticeably cooled over the last few weeks, even if flights are still more expensive than last summer.
It’s an early sign the season may not be lost for travelers who waited until now to book summer trips.
Meanwhile, the potential full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could offer additional hope of cheaper ticket prices.
Here’s what to make of the positive signs, the reasons we’re not celebrating just yet, and our tips for booking flights over the next few weeks.
An airfare roller coaster
It has been a rocky few months for airfare.
Ever since the conflict in the Middle East intensified in early March and caused a global spike in oil and jet fuel prices, ticket prices have surged.
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In May, fares were a whopping 27% higher than last year, according to federal data released last week.
Those high jet fuel prices helped hasten the demise of Spirit Airlines, caused airlines to hike baggage fees and prompted some international carriers to tack fuel surcharges onto award tickets.
But new data shows the worst of the price hikes may be behind us:
- Over the past week, a domestic coach ticket booked between three and five weeks in advance was about 12% cheaper than it was a month ago, according to a TPG analysis.
- If you want to travel internationally and can fly in August, those flights cost, on average, about 6% less than they did in mid-May.
- Meanwhile, August domestic fares as of Tuesday were running about 2% cheaper than they were a month ago.
Source: Points Path data
We’re seeing similar declines in award pricing for flyers hoping to book flights with miles.
Not time to celebrate yet
It’s hardly time to celebrate the return of the cheap flight, though.
After all, Points Path data showed that summer fares this week were still about 12% higher than last summer.
Basically, the sticker shock is less jarring than it was a few weeks ago — but it’s still real.
Major price drops are unlikely to happen right away
And it may be awhile, experts warn, before flyers see true airfare relief … even if all goes well with the planned reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the critical oil shipping corridor that has been snarled since winter.
A key reason: Jet fuel prices may not return to pre-war levels for some time, warned Jason Miller, supply chain expert at Michigan State University’s Broad College of Business.
“This will mean that airline ticket prices are not heading back to where they were before the war,” Miller said.
Ahmed Abdelghany, former airline executive and dean at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, added: “Any decline in oil prices may take several weeks or even months to be fully reflected in ticket prices.”
Tips for booking flights now
So what can you do if you’re looking to book flights between now and the end of summer?
Be as flexible as possible
Whether you’re planning to pay for your flight or redeem miles, my top recommendation this summer is to be flexible in where you go and when you go there.
Instead of setting your sights on, say, London or Rome, pick the 10 places you might be willing to go if the price is right and then find the flights that fit your budget.
Airfare comparison site Kayak has a tool that notes the cities where fares are dropping the fastest right now. Asheville, North Carolina, and Grand Rapids, Michigan, lead the way for domestic destinations. Internationally, consider Seoul or Naples, Italy.
Comparison shop
Use sites like Google Flights, Kayak or one of TPG’s other favorite award search tools to run broad searches across multiple airlines, destinations, dates and loyalty programs.
Cheapest days of the week to fly this summer
| Domestic economy bookings through Labor Day weekend | |
|---|---|
Cheapest 3 days of week to fly |
|
Most expensive day of the week | Sunday |
Source: Points Path
Use those credits
Some of TPG’s favorite travel credit cards have flexible travel credits and lucrative hotel reimbursements that can offset other trip costs — even if you’re paying more than you wanted in airfare.
This is where that annual fee can really pay for itself.
Pick your travel dates wisely
Here are the 10 cheapest days to fly between now and the unofficial end of summer, according to Points Path data:
- Wednesday, Aug. 26
- Monday, Sept. 7 (Labor Day)
- Tuesday, Aug. 25
- Thursday, Aug. 20
- Wednesday, Aug. 19
- Saturday, Aug. 22
- Saturday, Sept. 5 (Labor Day weekend)
- Wednesday, Sept. 2
- Saturday, Aug. 15
- Friday, Aug. 28
For those with a strong sense of the calendar, note that two of the 10 cheapest dates fall on Labor Day weekend. So, if Memorial Day weekend or Fourth of July brought you sticker shock, consider a getaway for the final long weekend of summer.
Bottom line
Ultimately, airlines likely won’t start slashing fares unless they see a significant drop in demand.
So far, that hasn’t happened.
Since Memorial Day weekend, the number of passengers that have passed through U.S. airports has been roughly even with last year, according to U.S. Transportation Security Administration numbers.
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