A flood of analyst initiations on SpaceX (SPCX) hit the market Tuesday, 16 trading days after Elon Musk’s rocket-telecom-AI-neocloud-social media company made its debut. 

Most of them were bullish. 

The stock fell by nearly 7%, closing below $150 for the first time since the SpaceX IPO.

I’ve long called investing in Musk’s endeavors faith-based. With SpaceX’s IPO, shareholders are called upon to believe as never before. Including today’s notes, analysts’ average price target for the stock as tracked by Bloomberg is $236.45, 58% above Tuesday’s close. 

Consider a partial list of milestones and hurdles that SpaceX must reach to rally that much and more in the coming years, according to their research notes:

• Achieve Starship reusability. SpaceX’s model pivots on its ability to launch and reuse rockets, making its ecosystem cost-effective.

• Increase Starship payloads. Closely tied to the reusability goal, Starship must be able to carry enough weight on its missions to maximize efficiency. 

• Make Grok competitive following the closure of the Cursor acquisition. 

• Successfully and cost-effectively develop solar-powered data centers in space. 

• Raise $84 billion annually from 2027-2034 to support this build-out, according to Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas. (Goldman Sachs’ Eric Sheridan frames it as $270 billion of debt capital to be raised between 2026 and 2030).

• “To make life multi-planetary, leverage the Sun to build out AI in space, & build bases on the Moon and cities on other planets,” as JPMorgan’s Doug Anmuth writes. No biggie. 

The uncertainty of these goals is reflected in the wide range of forecasts related to them. For example, JPMorgan (JPM) projects 5,000 Starship launches by 2031; RBC expects 2,440 by 2030. 

Elon Musk brings out the preacher and the poet in even the most spreadsheet-minded number cruncher on Wall Street: 

“SpaceX’s ambitions — and potential impact on humanity — are bigger than any company’s we’ve ever seen.” (Doug Anmuth, JPMorgan)

“Musk has established himself as one of this generation’s greatest innovators, and SpaceX has carried the torch for the U.S. industrial base during a time when peers have struggled.” (Louie DiPalma, William Blair)

“SpaceX represents in our view the apex of civilizational ambition, oftentimes expressed in steel and fire, bending the arc of history to make humans multiplanetary by building foundational infrastructure across transportation, connectivity, and AI.” (Edison Yu, Deutsche Bank, who should consider moonlighting as a sci-fi author).