Good evening, readers.

There’s a day marked in every politicos calendar right now — April 13.

That’s when voters in three ridings will elect new MPs, and while byelections don’t normally attract such high-profile attention, these ones will be impactful.

If the Liberals — as widely expected — win at least two of those seats, they’ll go from a minority to majority government. Going three for three (a very real possibility) and they won’t need to rely on the speaker to break ties.

So, in that case, call off the additional floor-crossers and end that election speculation, right?

Well, not so fast.

According to Liberal insiders, going 3-for-3 doesn’t change those machinations and might only punt the idea of a snap election to the fall.

Perry Tsergas, a Liberal strategist and president of Spark Advocacy, told iPolitics‘ No Talking Points podcast this week that even if the party gets a majority, he anticipates that at least one other opposition MP will join the government caucus.

“I know prognostications are dangerous in politics. I think it’s pretty safe to say the PM is going to get his functional structural majority by winning two of these three seats. We can talk about rumours of more floor crossers to come because I do think there will be at least one more,” he said in the latest episode, released on Wednesday.

Liberal strategist Stevie O’Brien said securing a majority will allow Carney to move faster in delivering his “vision for Canada” by creating a “more stable working environment [with] more productive committees.”

But she said that doesn’t mean he will stop attempting to attract opposition MPs to the Liberals, a task that she claims will be made easier by Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre’s failure to move to the centre.

Marco Vigliotti has this one.

Staying with the theme of uncertainty, the Bank of Canada is facing some very pressing questions.

Canada’s economy is slowing (and population growth can’t help us this time as StatsCan announced today Canada’s population fell for the first time on record in a calendar year.) Inflation is or was cooling but that war in Iran is driving up gas prices.

Then there’s the whole U.S. trade war and the review of the North America trade deal.

So, should the Bank cut or raise rates?

On Wednesday, it took an audible (as expected), holding its benchmark interest rate at 2.25 per cent.

The central bank’s decision to keep to the sidelines was widely expected but the future path for the policy rate is much less clear.

Governor Tiff Macklem says in prepared remarks that the Bank of Canada is in a “dilemma” with U.S. trade uncertainty keeping the economy soft but the Iran war sending global oil prices surging and likely spurring higher inflation in the months to come.

Macklem says the central bank will look through the immediate inflationary hit from the war but monetary policymakers will move to prevent persistent price hikes if the conflict persists or broadens.

StatsCan reported an economic contraction in the fourth quarter of the year and sharp job losses in February, which mean the economy is undershooting the central bank’s initial forecasts.

Macklem says recent data suggest the economy was growing again to start 2026 but it’s too early to say how the war in Iran will affect growth and the upcoming review of the Canada-U.S.-Mexico trade agreement is still a “big unknown.”

The Canadian Press explains.

Look away, Doug.

Mr. Ford finished second-last in Angus-Reid’s latest premiers’ popularity poll, with only the outgoing François Legault boasting a worse approval rating.

If there’s any solace, his – 3 drop was the same one experienced by B.C.’s David Eby and his pal Tim Houston of Nova Scotia fared even worse, dropping by 11 points.

Manitoba’s Wab Kinew is the most popular premier, according to the poll, which you can find here.

He’s likely the best rapper of the group, but that’s neither here nor there.

Back to Mr. Ford, he was back to his old ways on Wednesday, celebrating a Vaughan homeowner for shooting suspects in a recent home invasion.

“Should have shot him a couple of more times,” Ford quipped.

That has to go up there in the Ford press conference hall of fame alongside his comments about threatening a shoplifter at Home Depot.

Nothing rattles the premier it seems (well, maybe FOI requests…)

In Other Headlines

Internationally

Iran’s state television published a threat on Wednesday saying the country would be attacking oil and gas infrastructure in Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates amid a new wave of strikes on its Persian Gulf neighbours and Israel.

Iran struck a province of Saudi Arabia where many oil fields are located. Two big explosions were heard in the capital Riyadh late Wednesday and an interceptor missile flew overhead. There were no immediate reports of damage or casualties.

Most previous Iranian strikes have hit in eastern Saudi Arabia, close to Iran and home to major Saudi oil installations.

The kingdom’s air defences have intercepted most of the incoming missiles, but strikes have killed at least two migrant workers and an American soldier at an air base in Al Kharj.

The threat to oil and gas infrastructure resembled other attack warnings put out by Iran during the war, copying the style used by the Israeli military. Iran specifically threatened Saudi Arabia’s Samref Refinery and its Jubail Petrochemical Complex. It also threatened the U.A.E.’s Al Hasan Gas Field and the petrochemical plants and a refinery in Qatar.

It comes after Iran said its South Pars gas field and associated infrastructure came under attack earlier on Wednesday.

AP reports.

Meanwhile, labour rights leader Dolores Huerta says she was sexually abused by César Chavez amid reported allegations of abuse by others during his tenure as president of The United Farm Workers union.

On Wednesday, an investigation by the New York Times found that Chavez, groomed and sexually abused young girls who worked in the movement, including the co-founder of the union Dolores Huerta.

In a statement released Wednesday, Huerta said she stayed silent for 60 years out of concern that her words would hurt the farmworker movement.

Huerta described two sexual encounters with Chavez, one where she was “manipulated and pressured” and another where she was “forced against my will.”

“I carried this secret for as long as I did because building the movement and securing farmworker rights was life’s work. The formation of a union was the only vehicle to accomplish and secure those rights and I wasn’t going to let César or anyone else get in the way.”

AP has this one too.

In Other International Headlines

The Kicker

It’s the day so many of you have been waiting for — the American Kennel Club released its annual rankings on the most popular dog breeds south of the border on Wednesday.

The skinny of it — French bulldogs are still hits, as are retrievers and German shepherds. But dachshunds are increasingly hot dogs.

AP explains.

Have a great night!