A groundbreaking study from the University of Erfurt challenges the assumption that people underestimate public support for climate action, showing that individuals often overestimate the level of engagement among others.

On July 7, 2026, a research team from the University of Erfurt published a significant study in Nature Climate Change, contesting the long-held belief that individuals underestimate public support for climate protection.

Led by Dr. Kevin Tiede from the Institute for Planetary Health Behaviour, the study uncovered a complex reality. “Until now, it has often been assumed that people do not support climate protection more strongly or take action themselves because they believe they are in the minority with their attitude,” Tiede stated. However, findings indicate that people sometimes overestimate how many are actually engaged in climate protection efforts.

The researchers analyzed responses from over 5,000 participants across Germany and the USA. They discovered that while individuals primarily support climate initiatives, they tend to underestimate the size of this majority. Conversely, there is an overestimation regarding how many are actively donating to climate causes or participating in political activism.

This simultaneous underestimation and overestimation are attributed to a psychological tendency to shift extreme views toward a perceived average. Tiede explained, “Part of what has so far been labeled pluralistic ignorance could be due to very general thought processes when estimating proportions.”

These findings have important implications for climate communication strategies. Although it was previously believed that highlighting broad public support could enhance social engagement, the study concludes that merely addressing misperceptions may not be enough to encourage actionable climate behavior. Instead, facilitating practical solutions and effectively communicating them might be key to fostering a more climate-friendly society.

For more details, the full study can be accessed here.