Five months ago, we had the chance to ask Americans about their country’s relationship with other nations. The world had just experienced the unexpected removal of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, as U.S. President Donald Trump hinted at turning Canada into an American “51st” state and using the military to deal with drug cartels in Mexico.

Since then, American interventionism has continued, in the form of a protracted conflict with Iran. The perceptions of Americans on the two nations that are co-hosting the FIFA World Cup over the summer have not changed much: 63 per cent (down three points since January) think Canada should remain an independent nation and 68 per cent (up one point) feel the same way about Mexico.

Only seven per cent of Americans want Canada to become an American state—reaching 10 per cent in the South and 10 per cent among African Americans—while 15 per cent would convert Canada into a U.S. territory with similar regulations to the ones currently in place for Puerto Rico. This idea is slightly more popular among residents of the Midwest (19 per cent) and Trump voters in 2024 (22 per cent).

In spite of their influence on Canadian affairs—as exemplified by the 68 per cent of Canadians who are paying attention to the tariffs dispute—Trump’s intermittent discussions about Canada’s future are not being met with significant empathy from Americans at large or among his base of supporters.

On the political front, Trump is weeks away from entering his lame duck phase. Fewer than two in five Americans approve of his performance as president (38 per cent, down four points since January) and the Republicans trail the Democrats on the race for the House of Representatives (33 per cent to 38 per cent).

Trump is constitutionally barred from seeking a new term in office, but his performance in the next two years can have a profound effect on whoever becomes the Republican nominee. We went through a similar scenario in 2007 and 2008, when dissatisfaction with George W. Bush complicated John McCain’s ability to connect with voters.

The president’s base is still defined by television viewership and race. While most Americans who get their information from Fox News are happy with the way Trump is managing his duties (56 per cent), the proportions drop drastically among those who watch local networks (32 per cent), CNN (27 per cent) or the recently renamed MS NOW, formerly MSNBC (22 per cent).

Only 26 per cent of African Americans approve of Trump’s performance. The rating is higher among those of Hispanic or Latino descent (30 per cent) and white Americans (43 per cent).

An early test of 2028 presidential contenders did not yield any surprises. On the Republican side, Americans are more likely to look at six people as “good choices” for a nomination: Vice-President JD Vance (31 per cent), Secretary of Health and Human Services Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (29 per cent), Secretary of State Marco Rubio (28 per cent), Texas Sen. Ted Cruz (25 per cent), the president’s eldest son Donald Trump Jr. (23 per cent) and Florida Gov. Ron De Santis (22 per cent).

Republican voters gravitate primarily toward Vance (67 per cent), but two others would be regarded as “good choices” by most supporters of the president’s party: Rubio (54 per cent) and Trump Jr. (also 54 per cent), followed by Cruz (48 per cent), Kennedy Jr. (45 per cent) and De Santis (also 45 per cent).

On the Democratic side, the list of “good choices” among all Americans features two women at the top: former first lady Michelle Obama (45 per cent) and 2024 presidential nominee and former Vice-President Kamala Harris (35 per cent), followed by California Gov. Gavin Newsom (26 per cent), actor George Clooney (25 per cent), New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (24 per cent), former Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg (23 per cent), Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro (also 23 per cent) and Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly (21 per cent).

Among Democrats, the top five contenders are Obama and Harris (73 per cent and 67 per cent respectively), and more than a third looking at four other candidates as “good choices”: Newsom (47 per cent), Buttigieg (44 per cent), Ocasio-Cortez (44 per cent) and Kelly (37 per cent).

The presidential primary season “unofficially” begins after the mid-terms in November, where the Democrats are hoping to win control of the lower house. It is extremely early to know who the nominees will be. At this stage in 2006, a Rudy Giuliani versus Hillary Clinton election in 2008 seemed plausible and probable. We will have to wait and see if current senators and governors can position themselves to counter the extreme media attention that Vance and Harris still command.

Mario Canseco is president of Research Co.

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted from June 4-6, 2026, among 1,001 adults in the United States. The data has been statistically weighted according to U.S. census figures for age, gender and region. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.