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Is “merger mania” returning to the U.S. airline industry?
You certainly might think so after reading Monday’s Bloomberg News report, which stated that United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby apparently floated a blockbuster merger with American Airlines to federal officials earlier this year.
Whether such a deal is ever formally proposed (as there’d be intense regulatory scrutiny on combining two of the nation’s biggest global carriers), it’s safe to say that the topic of airline mergers is back in full force.
It also prompts a look back at the previous wave of major airline mergers from 2005 to 2016, which helped shape the current competitive aviation landscape:
- US Airways-America West (2005)
- Delta Air Lines-Northwest Airlines (2008)
- United Airlines-Continental Airlines (2010)
- Southwest Airlines-AirTran Airways (2011)
- American Airlines-US Airways (2014)
Those deals dramatically reduced the number of major airlines in the U.S. — ultimately melding nine different airlines into just four. In the process, storied brands like Northwest, Continental and US Airways fell by the wayside. This left four supersized airlines (American, Delta, United and Southwest) in control of roughly 80% of the U.S. market.
By 2015, most people didn’t expect any further airline consolidation. However, in 2016, Alaska Airlines managed to complete one more major deal, outbidding JetBlue to acquire Virgin America.
But, fast forward to 2026, and government and industry leaders now seem to see the opportunity for a new round of U.S. airline mergers.
Even before reports began linking United to American, merger talk had grown amid skyrocketing fuel prices squeezing the industry.
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Delta CEO Ed Bastian noted last week that high oil prices were historically a catalyst for industry consolidation.
He cited high fuel prices as a driver for that last major round of airline mergers (including Delta’s own merger with Northwest in 2008, as well as the United-Continental, Southwest-AirTran and American-US Airways deals).
“I anticipate higher fuel prices will cause much more significant structural reform than we’ve seen over this period,” Bastian said. “There’s a number of business models that, I think, their owners are going to start questioning whether they continue to commit capital to.”
It had already been happening on a smaller scale.
Alaska Airlines announced in 2023 it would acquire and merge with Hawaiian Airlines, setting the stage for Alaska to join American, Delta and United as the nation’s newest global carrier.
Leisure carrier Allegiant is in the midst of its own merger with niche carrier Sun Country.
And JetBlue is reportedly shopping itself for a merger or acquisition, which likely would’ve been the major prize in the industry until the United-American report emerged this week.
Even Washington, D.C. — historically one of the toughest audiences regarding this topic — has signaled openness.
Bastian’s comments, for example, came just two days after U.S. Secretary of Transportation Sean Duffy said on CNBC that he sees “room” for more airline consolidation.
All of this merger talk comes as numerous U.S. airlines struggle financially, and at least two are considered takeover targets. JetBlue recently hired advisers to explore a potential merger with either Alaska Airlines, Southwest or United, Semafor reported in March. And Spirit Airlines certainly remains a takeover target as it continues to operate under Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.
Government support
The Department of Justice provided the first sign of support in March when it ended its antitrust review of Allegiant Air’s takeover of Sun Country Airlines early with no objections. While the airlines had little overlap and together represent around just 2% of U.S. domestic seats, the swift approval signaled a light regulatory touch from the Trump administration.
The Biden administration blocked the combination of JetBlue and Spirit in 2024, and successfully sued to end JetBlue’s Northeast Alliance with American Airlines in 2023.
On CNBC, Duffy did say that, while Trump “loves to see big deals happen,” a merger by one of the “larger” airlines would require them to “peel off some of their assets.” (“Larger” airlines likely refers to American, Delta, Southwest and United, which each control about a fifth of the U.S. market.)
The last major airline merger — Alaska’s takeover of Hawaiian, which closed in 2024 — is nearing its final major passenger-facing milestone when Hawaiian moves to Alaska’s reservations system April 22.
The next big airline deal
No one knows just what the next deal could occur. In the history of airline mergers, the most obvious combinations are not always the ones that occur.
That certainly would be the case with any United-American deal. But, again, such a combo would be considered the longest of long shots if past precedent holds.
Elsewhere, some airline mergers might be more likely candidates than others.
Frontier Airlines is widely viewed as the most suitable partner for Spirit given their similar ultra-low-cost business models and complementary route networks; Frontier is more concentrated in the western U.S., while Spirit has a larger presence in the Detroit, Florida and New York markets.
A combined Frontier-Spirit would have a roughly 7% share of U.S. domestic seats based on 2025 numbers, schedule data from aviation analytics firm Cirium shows. It would be the fifth-largest share, surpassing Alaska-Hawaiian’s 6% share.
Frontier has tried and failed to merge with Spirit at least twice. It was outbid by JetBlue in 2022 in a deal that ultimately failed and was rejected in 2025.
A potential JetBlue deal is more interesting.
While its recent partnership with United has some pundits pontificating about a possible JetBlue-United merger, others have suggested an Alaska-JetBlue combo would make sense. And while those combined carriers’ networks would immediately make it a player on both coasts, it’s questionable whether Alaska could absorb another airline while in the midst of integrating operations with Hawaiian.
Another view comes from Courtney Miller at Visual Approach Analytics, who wrote earlier in April that he views a Southwest-JetBlue merger as the most suitable when weighing fleet, network and antitrust considerations. He noted existing chatter that either an Alaska-JetBlue combination or a United-JetBlue combination also have merit.
“If Alaska would see limited benefit but almost certain [regulatory] approval, and United would see massive benefit but likely rejection, Southwest just kind of works,” he wrote (prior to news about a potential United-American combo that would break with past regulatory precedent). “Good benefit and a very strong likelihood of approval.”
A combined Southwest-JetBlue would surpass American as the largest domestic airline with a 24% share of seats based on 2025 numbers, Cirium data shows.
And while a Southwest-JetBlue deal does have issues — for one, Southwest flies an all-Boeing 737 fleet and JetBlue an all-Airbus fleet — it would achieve at least two of Southwest’s strategic goals: long-haul international flying to Europe and lounges.
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