In May, Milwaukee Bucks co-owner Jimmy Haslam said that he wanted Giannis Antetokounmpo’s future settled by the NBA Draft. Well, the NBA Draft begins on June 23, so it would seem that resolution is less than three weeks away. At the same time, fellow Bucks co-owner and current governor Wes Edens has said that the Bucks will either extend Antetokounmpo or trade him this offseason, so one way or another, this will be settled this offseason.

So, where do the Antetokounmpo sweepstakes now sit? Here is a roundup of all of the latest rumors and what they might mean:

• On May 22, one Western Conference executive told The Athletic that Antetokounmpo may be viewed as a solution for the NBA’s budding Victor Wembanyama problem. “Yeah, Giannis is a matchup solution for Wemby, so I could definitely see teams factoring that in when they’re discussing trading for him,” the executive said. Now that Wembanyama is in the NBA Finals, the urgency to counter him could theoretically grow stronger.
• On Monday, Marc Stein reported that the Miami Heat and Portland Trail Blazers are actively pursuing Antetokounmpo. While there has been widespread speculation about other teams, there has been no firm reporting about anyone else throwing their hats in the ring.
• On a livestream for Bleacher Report on Tuesday, Jake Fischer noted that five often speculated teams are not expected to factor into the sweepstakes: the Oklahoma City Thunder, Cleveland Cavaliers, Minnesota Timberwolves, Houston Rockets and Boston Celtics. Minnesota aggressively pursued Antetokounmpo at the deadline. There were reported talks between Cleveland and Milwaukee then as well, but top Cavaliers executive Koby Altman has issued strong public support for Evan Mobley, who would be needed to get a deal done. We’ll circle back to Boston in a moment.
• On Wednesday, The Athletic’s Sam Amick reported a number of notable details in the Antetokounmpo sweepstakes. Portland, for example, is viewed as an unlikely destination given Antetokounmpo’s preference to remain in the Eastern Conference. The Heat, however, appear to be the frontrunner. “The noise surrounding the Miami Heat and Antetokounmpo remains louder than all the rest,” Amick wrote. “Many people around the league, from agents to executives, continue to believe that Antetokounmpo will end up in Miami when this saga finally comes to an end.” While Antetokounmpo has held rumored interest in Miami for some time, one potential holdup, according to Amick, is Miami’s ability to contend for a championship. The Celtics come with no such concerns, and Amick reported that there are indications that Antetokounmpo is “very intrigued” by the idea of moving to Boston.

So what can we take from all of this? For an Antetokounmpo trade to make sense, two boxes need to be checked. The acquiring team needs to be interested in making a substantial offer to Milwaukee and, with Antetokounmpo set for 2027 free agency, he either needs to be interested enough in the team in question to sign an extension with them, or the team in question needs to be willing to trade for him without any assurances about his future.

Portland seems to check the “interested enough in Giannis to make a substantial offer” box. However, the Blazers to this point do not seem to have checked the “interesting enough to Giannis to secure an extension” box. The Celtics seem to be operating in reverse. Antetokounmpo would reportedly be interested in playing for them. However, at this point, we do not know how eager they are to include star wing Jaylen Brown in a trade to get him. Celtics reporter Steve Bulpett reported that, as of May 29, there had been no direct talks between the Celtics and Bucks.

Only one team has substantial reporting that checks both boxes: the Heat. Miami has been trying to trade for a superstar for years. Rumors have linked Antetokounmpo to the Heat for years. That alone would appear to put the Heat in the driver’s seat.

But these situations are fluid. There are probably teams, Boston potentially among them, trying to keep any potential interest quiet for fear of creating locker room problems if talks fail. There may also be teams working to try to convince Antetokounmpo he should extend with them. Portland, notably, employs two high-profile former teammates of Antetokounmpo’s in Damian Lillard and Jrue Holiday, and the Blazers also control Milwaukee’s first-round picks in 2028, 2029 and 2030. It’s hard to imagine there aren’t mystery teams in the hunt for a player as good as Antetokounmpo.

If the Heat wind up being the only team that checks both boxes, well, there’s a very good chance that they wind up with Antetokounmpo. If someone else does, things get a lot harder. Miami’s trade package is deep, but lacks major impact assets at the top. Its best draft pick is probably No. 13 overall this year, and while the Heat can include future picks in the deal, Miami’s organizational consistency makes those picks less valuable than ones coming from more volatile franchises. Its best player asset to trade is probably second-year big man Kel’El Ware. He’s a promising young talent, but he’s hardly the sort of star other teams can’t put on the table.

Should Boston decide it is willing to offer Brown, for instance, that changes the equation significantly. A number of teams, including Portland, the Atlanta Hawks, Houston Rockets and New Orleans Pelicans, have all been linked to Brown through credible reporting. Milwaukee could either trade for Brown directly or use him to get assets it covets from one of those other teams. In conjunction with its own tradable draft picks, that should push the Celtics past the Heat… if they elect to participate in the proceedings.

One way or another, an answer is coming soon. If Milwaukee’s stated target of the NBA Draft is indeed a deadline, we’ll know where Antetokounmpo is playing next season in less than three weeks.