College football betting: How to bet Alabama-Georgia


Week 6 of college football kicks off with the Tide rising, but the Dawgs have bite. No. 2 Georgia visits No. 6 Alabama with both teams unbeaten at 5-0, only the second time such a meeting has occurred in more than 130 years in the series. Alongside 4-0 Texas, they’re the SEC’s last undefeated teams.

Saturday will leave one fewer standing, with conference supremacy and national championship ambitions adding weight to an already pivotal showdown.

Alabama has five straight wins in this series in the regular season, with Georgia’s last victory coming in Tuscaloosa in 2007. One interesting trend, per ESPN Stats & Info: In the past 15 seasons, there have been 32 non-neutral games between FBS teams 5-0 or better. Home teams are 28-4 in those games.

Odds by DraftKings and subject to change.


No. 2 Georgia at No. 6 Alabama (-2.5)
Saturday, 7:30 ET, ABC

Records: Alabama 5-0, 1-0 vs. AP Top 25; Georgia 5-0, 0-0 vs. AP Top 25
Money line: Alabama (-122); Georgia (+102)
Over/Under: 52.5 (O -110, U -110)


Georgia: The defense the box score hides

The Bulldogs are allowing just 13.4 points per game. That number might still undersell this defense. Look at when the touchdowns came: Of the 10 Georgia has allowed, five came in the fourth quarter after the Bulldogs had built huge leads. Opponents have reached the end zone just three times in the first half across five games, suggesting Georgia has been especially difficult to score against before games get out of reach.

The efficiency numbers back it up. When opponents get a scoring opportunity, a first down inside the Georgia 40-yard line, they average only 2.89 points, one of the best marks in the country. Teams move the ball into scoring range and come away with field goals or nothing.

Saturday is different. For the first time this season, this group won’t get a fourth-quarter rest. It’s a road game in one of the loudest stadiums in college football, against a top-10 offense that has scored no less than 45 points in each game this season. It’s the first real look at what this Georgia defense is when it plays a full game against top-tier competition. Everything underneath the surface says it’s better than its season totals suggest.

Alabama: Trouble up front

Alabama’s offense looks unstoppable on the highlight reel. Quarterback Keelon Russell — making noise in the Heisman market — is averaging 10.7 yards per attempt. His favorite two receivers, Ryan Coleman-Williams and Lotzeir Brooks, are top 10 in conference in yards per reception. When this passing game has time, it can score from anywhere.

Time is the problem, and Alabama’s pass blocking is the vulnerability. Russell has already been sacked 11 times in five games (more than twice a game) with those coming against weaker fronts. Russell’s average time to throw is the longest in the SEC, giving Georgia’s rush more time to affect throws. The running game doesn’t offer an escape either. Alabama’s run blocking also grades poorly, while RB Daniel Hill averages 4.8 yards a carry — solid but not a player who can carry an offense. When the ground game can’t move the chains, everything lands on Russell’s arm and on five linemen holding up long enough for deep routes to develop.

That’s the question for Saturday because the talent at the skill positions is real. Whether the line gives that talent a chance against a better front and secondary is the challenge.

Prediction: UNDER 52.5

Note: The original line was 55.5 at the time of writing but by the time of publish, it dropped to 52.5. I would try to get the best number possible to see if it goes back up but 52.5 is the lowest. Anything below that is a pass.

This game is priced like a shootout between two high-scoring offenses that still produce at the same rate against elite defenses, but the pace says otherwise.

Georgia should control the game on the ground but both run defenses can make finishing drives difficult, while neither offense plays with much early urgency. Georgia is 116th in the country for plays per game. Both teams open games slowly, especially over the first few drives. Fewer snaps means fewer possessions, and fewer possessions means fewer chances to reach this total.

Plus, Georgia’s late scores allowed overstates how vulnerable the scoring defense has been. Alabama’s passing efficiency with Russell remains the biggest threat, but deliberate pace, difficult rushing matchups and Georgia’s ability to force field goals give this game a path below the total.



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