Chinese lending to Africa has plummeted, new data showed, reflecting a shift in focus to strategic investments on the continent and a lower risk appetite for financing infrastructure projects.

Beijing’s total lending in 2024 amounted to $2.1 billion, down by more than 90% from its 2016 peak, a report by Boston University’s Global Development Policy Center showed. And Chinese loans to Africa fell by nearly half in 2024 compared to the previous year.

The downward trend began when Chinese loans to Africa fell sharply by more than 60% to $6.8 billion in 2019, around the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Chinese loans to Africa have averaged just above $2 billion since 2020, having reached $10 billion or more between 2012 and 2018, Boston University’s database showed. The decline stems from more restraint by Chinese lenders, and borrowing constraints in Africa tied to continued post-pandemic shocks, debt restructuring efforts, and an increasingly volatile international order, said Mengdi Yue, a researcher at Boston University’s Global Development Policy Center.

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