American e-commerce companies stand to face a multitude of headwinds heading into the busiest selling season of the year, especially if they do considerable business in North America.

The customary holiday windfall they experience could be marred significantly by Canadian retaliatory duties worth between 15-50 percent taking effect this week. While the impacts are yet to be fully understood or felt, brands based in the United States and shipping into Canada should do their best to prepare now, according to Alison Layfield, vice president of product development at ePost Global.

The international logistics shipping company services more than 200 countries and territories around the world using over 100 carriers, but the bulk of it business clients are based in the U.S. Layfield, who is based in Canada, advised that there are three key factors companies should consider as they gear up for a peak-season sales push.

Firstly, she said, they must understand how the tariffs will truly impact their business—and that’s based on their products’ country of origin and HS codes. Secondly, they need to think about how to communicate those tariff impacts (if they indeed exist) to their consumers. And third, they need to understand the shifting sentiments of the Canadian shoppers they have been servicing, as their feelings about supporting U.S. e-commerce businesses may have changed.

“Unfortunately, the counter tariffs basically negate the [U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement], and specifically for fashion—clothing, footwear—those items are on that counter tariff hit list at 50 percent,” she said.

However, few fashion products sold by American brands and retailers are made on U.S. shores, and most source from producers across the globe. There’s been confusion among clients, Layfield said, about how country of origin impacts tariff rates, and even about how goods are declared. “We are seeing that some of our customers aren’t necessarily declaring accurately, and it is going to have a negative impact on them,” she said.

For example, earlier this week, one of ePost’s U.S. clients expressed trepidation about selling its Mexico-made goods into Canada, lest it incur the punishing 50 percent duty rate. Maybe that business is now off the table, the brand owner surmised, because the HS codes of their products were included in the Canadian list of retaliatory duties.

Layfield communicated that that wasn’t the case because the Mexico-originating products being sold into the Canadian market were covered by USMCA, rendering them duty free. Should the brand have declared incorrectly that the product’s country of origin was the U.S., it would be hit with the 50 percent duty, and if it wasn’t aware of its duty burden upon the sale of the product, it would not be able to fully or partially pass on the cost of the tariff to the end consumer.

Layfield said that anxiety has taken hold among U.S. sellers, and while ePost hasn’t seen a shift in volumes as “it’s still really early days,” she worries that American businesses will unnecessarily give up on Canadian business when their products aren’t actually subject to tariffs.

For many U.S. businesses selling apparel products into Canada, the 50 percent duties won’t be a factor, and it’s important that the communicate that early and often to their northern consumers. “If I was a U.S. merchant, knowing what I know, I would really be promoting the fact that [Canadian consumers] are not going to get hit [with duties]. These aren’t going to impact you,” she said. “You’ve got to be clear on that messaging so that when a Canadian consumer goes to the site, they know, ‘What I’ve ordered in the past, I can still order, and I’m still not going to be impacted.’”

Sorting out sourcing and conveying the message to consumers isn’t all it will take to preserve Canadian business, however. There’s growing consternation among Canadian consumers over the way the country has been targeted by the U.S. government, and shoppers are voting with their wallets.

“Canada Strong” has become a slogan in recent months, “and consumers are embracing it,” Layfield said. Domestic premium apparel brands like Melanie Lyne or Joseph Ribkoff, for example, are promoting their Canada-made products both online and in stores and it’s resonating, she added. “They want to keep that revenue here in Canada,” she said.

The impacts of this growing swell of patriotism may have been underestimated by U.S. brands selling into the country. Asked whether she believes it will have a marked impact on U.S. sales into the market, Layfield said, “as long as the messaging stays strong from the government and businesses in Canada, which is promoting shopping local and buying Canadian, I really do.”

“Unless something changes, I feel there’s going to be a negative impact on volumes coming into Canada,” she added. Even if a bilateral agreement can be reached in the coming weeks—perhaps before the U.S. midterm elections—the damage may already be done.

“What is probably challenging is the fact that people have a certain mindset now. The U.S. hit us, and we hit them, and we’re hearing as Canadians this push to buy Canadian. I think that that’s going to stick with people even if things are resolved next week or in a month,” Layfield said.