Week 5 NFL odds, picks, predictions: Our 10 best bets for Sunday’s games

Week 5 of the NFL season began with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers taking down the Dallas Cowboys 24-16 on Thursday night in a stunning upset.

What will the rest of the weekend have in store for bettors?

Our NFL handicapping team of Corbie Craig, Michael Fiddle, Matt Jacob, Jeremy Pond and Matt Russell combine to give their best bets for Week 5 of the NFL season.

Odds subject to change.

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (-7.5, 41.5) in London

Jacob: Let’s review the last week for the Philadelphia Eagles, shall we?

First, they followed an ugly 27-7 Week 3 loss at Chicago by coming home and blowing a 20-10 second-half lead to the Rams, losing 24-20. In that game, the Eagles failed to record a single first down on 13 third-down attempts and their top two skill position players — Saquon Barkley and DeVonta Smith — suffered hamstring injuries. Two days later, their future Hall of Fame right tackle (Lane Johnson) abruptly retired. A day after that, the front office dealt Johnson’s two-time Pro Bowl-winning line mate (center Cam Jurgens) to Baltimore.

Barkley and Smith, who were no-shows at mid-week practices, are listed as questionable for Sunday’s game against Jacksonville in London. If they suit up, both figure to be severely limited. Meanwhile, Jurgens’ backup — and the only other center officially listed on Philly’s depth chart — is questionable. No fewer than five defensive starters also carry the same injury designation.

Bet on the Jacksonville Jaguars to cover the spread at sportsbooks

Now, the Eagles fly overseas to play a Jaguars squad that has won (and covered) 11 of its last 12 regular season games. Not only were eight of those double-digit victories, but Jacksonville has outscored its last dozen foes by a 31-14 per-game margin. That includes the one loss (20-13 at Denver in Week 2)

So it’s no surprise that money has been pouring in on the Jaguars all week. And I have no problem joining the masses in this situation.

Bet: Jaguars -7.5 (-105, Caesars)

Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5, 44)

Craig: I understand the hesitation here. Pittsburgh’s last two games had 57 and 51 points, respectively, the Colts just hung 30 on Washington and nobody wants to be the guy holding an under ticket in a shootout.

But look at the teams the Steelers scored against — Cincinnati and Cleveland — and compare it to the three points they managed against New England. We have the Pittsburgh offense No. 18 in the league at 1.6 points per drive, and the Colts seventh (2.3), and Indianapolis will go up against a Steelers defense that has given up 21.8 points per game and a building that does not do fireworks in October. This number opened at 47.5 and the market has been walking it down all week for the same reasons. We make it Steelers 22, Colts 21, and I played it under 44 with 44.5 still sitting out there at some books.

Bet: Under 44 (-108, BetMGM)

Cleveland Browns at New York Jets (-2.5, 39.5)

Craig: I’ll be up front: We make this 39.4, so our number is sitting on top of the market’s. This is not a model play — it’s a profile play.

Cleveland is the NFL’s worst offense on our board, the Jets are 29th and the Browns bring the No. 10 defense into a game where the Jets have scored 23, 17, 24 and 12 and three of their four games finished between 33 and 37. Cleveland put up 10 against Jacksonville and has not cleared 27 all season. A total under 40 between two offenses that can’t sustain a drive needs one of them to find something it has not shown in a month, and I’m comfortable betting that neither does.

Bet: Under 39.5 (-104, Caesars)

Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5, 43.5) at Miami Dolphins

Pond: So, just how bad are the Dolphins when it comes to defending the opposing team’s tight ends?

Take a look:

T.J. Hockenson — 13 receptions for 119 yards
Travis Kelce and Noah Gray (combined) — five catches for 98 yards and a touchdown
George Kittle — four receptions for 80 yards and a score

You get the picture. They’re bad.

Now, Miami faces a Cincinnati team that’s dealing with injuries to star wide receivers Ja’Marr Chase (concussion) and Tee Higgins (adductor/neck), meaning someone has to step up in their absence.

Enter Gesicki.

The tight end is off to a solid campaign, (11 receptions for 155 yards and three touchdowns), and he has scored in the last two games, including a 15-yard TD catch in a 22-17 home loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars last time out.

Despite the injuries to Chase and Higgins, Joe Burrow and Co. should have no issues moving the ball against Miami. The Bengals will have multiple red-zone opportunities, setting up Gesicki to hit paydirt.

Bet: TE Mike Gesicki anytime TD (+255, DraftKings)

LANDOVER, MARYLAND - SEPTEMBER 27: Jayden Daniels #5 of the Washington Commanders walks the field prior to an NFL football game against the Seattle Seahawks at Northwest Stadium on September 27, 2026 in Landover, Maryland. (Photo by Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images) — LANDOVER, MARYLAND – SEPTEMBER 27: Jayden Daniels #5 of the Washington Commanders walks the field prior to an NFL football game against the Seattle Seahawks at Northwest Stadium on September 27, 2026 in Landover, Maryland.
(Kevin Sabitus via Getty Images)

New York Giants at Washington Commanders (-3.5, 41.5)

Russell: There’s plenty to be scared of when it comes to backing the Commanders on Sunday. The looming double-specter of a Jayden Daniels injury and Athan Kaliakmanis as the only option (instead of a near-lateral move to Marcus Mariota). Plus, the hook off of -3.

That said, there’s value on Commanders -3.5.

When last we saw Daniels in the lineup, Washington was +4.5 at Dallas, and driving to stay within the spread with a field goal, but opting to go for the tie before halftime…

…and it went horribly wrong.

Going into that game, over at THE WINDOW, we had the Commanders’ estimated market rating at no worse than 45 out of 100. After a major downgrade with Daniels out, Washington beat Seattle with Mariota at home and lost in England to the Colts with Kaliakmanis. At worst, nothing should have changed with regards to the Commanders’ perception.

Daniels has been given a clean bill of health (and an elbow brace), and will start, but our estimated market rating for Washington hasn’t been returned to the mid-to-high 40s (a slightly below-average team).

We know that, because they’re only -3.5 against a Giants team that so little was thought of last week, that they were home underdogs to the Cardinals after coming off a win over the Titans.

Now that New York has escaped final-second drives from Cam Ward and Jacoby Brissett, the Giants’ rating is creeping back up to the general vicinity of where they were rated before the season. Of course, since then, they have lost Jaxson Dart, seen the run game diminish with him out, added Jameis Winston’s turnover proclivity and seen top pass-rusher Brian Burns go down for the season.

It all adds up to a game that should be lined closer to a touchdown, and some value on the Commanders in Daniels’ return. Plus, we like a Washington defense that’s upped its blitz-percentage from last season under new defensive coordinator Daronte Jones (who came over from Minnesota).

Bet: Commanders -3.5 (-118, DraftKings)

Detroit Lions (-5.5, 54.5) at Arizona Cardinals

Pond: Two of the worst defenses in the NFL headline this showdown, which has me believing we’re going to see some fireworks in the desert.

Detroit (2-2) ranks dead last in total defense, and can’t stop anyone — particularly in the passing game. The Lions have conceded a league-worst 1,216 passing yards (304 yards per game), which has to have Brissett licking his chops.

The same can be said for Arizona standouts Michael Wilson and Trey McBride, who have seen what others have done against this porous Detroit defense. Carolina star Tetairoa McMillan just lit up the Lions for 14 catches for 192 yards and two TDs, becoming the latest receiver to torch their secondary.

With all of that mind, we’re targeting multiple plays in this affair.

Back Brissett to have his best game of the season and temporarily keep his starting job. We also like a three-player Same Game Parlay, featuring Wilson, McBride and Amon-Ra St. Brown erupting in a showdown that could wind up in the 70s on the scoring front.

Bets: QB Jacoby Brissett over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-132) | Same Game Parlay: Amon-Ra St. Brown anytime TD, Trey McBride anytime TD and Michael Wilson 80+ receiving yards (+600, Caesars)

Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons (-3, 43.5)

Jacob: How can you not be impressed with the Falcons’ turnaround? After scoring just 16 points — and not even taking a single snap in the red zone — in season-opening losses to Pittsburgh and Carolina, Atlanta exploded for 80 points in consecutive road victories over the Packers and Saints.

With the oft-injured quarterback Michael Penix Jr. replacing third-stringer Cooper Rush, Atlanta’s offense racked up 918 yards and 10 touchdowns the last two weeks. At the same time, the defense surrendered just four TDs (two of which were fourth-quarter garbage-time scores with the Falcons leading 27-7 and 45-17).

Will Penix, Bijan Robinson and the rest of the Falcons’ offense face a stiffer test Sunday night? Probably. Baltimore defense comes in ranked 10th in both total yards and rushing yards allowed. Then again, that defense is surrendering 24 points per contest.

Of course, the bigger concern for the Ravens is on the other side of the ball. Lamar Jackson is hurt (again), having injured his ankle last week at the end of the first half against Tennessee. The two-time NFL MVP sat out the second half, and despite being listed as questionable, I don’t expect him to suit up Sunday night. If Jackson does go, he won’t be anywhere near 100%. And I certainly don’t trust Tyler Huntley to pick up the slack.

Bet on the Atlanta Falcons to cover the spread at sportsbooks

In other words, Atlanta is catching the Ravens at the right time. Oh, and there’s a common opponent worth mentioning: The Falcons went to New Orleans on Monday and throttled the Saints 45-24 — the same Saints who beat the Ravens 24-17 in Baltimore in Week 2.

Bet: Falcons -3 (-115, BetMGM)

Pond: Let me preface this insight by letting everyone know I have been a Ravens fan for more than 25 years. I’ve been through the ups and downs with this franchise, but one thing I never do is show bias toward them when it comes to betting angles.

That said, I’ve found it extremely hard to find a way Baltimore (3-1) enjoys success in primetime against a suddenly hot Atlanta team, which I think can make a serious playoff run if its stars can stay healthy.

Since the return of QB Michael Penix Jr., the Falcons offense has been the definition of electric. Penix sits fourth in EPA/Play and success rate amongst quarterbacks. Bijan is doing Bijan things (494 rushing yards, 120 receiving yards and five TDs) and fellow running back Brian Robinson Jr. is coming off a three-TD night against the Saints.

On the other side, Lamar Jackson is hurt again and that means Tyler Huntley will likely start under center. That alone doesn’t give me much confidence in Baltimore due to the fact the franchise is 2-5 straight up in its last seven games without Jackson.

Throw in the fact the Atlanta defense ranks No. 1 in rushing defense by more than 100 yards over second-ranked Jacksonville, allowing a paltry 2.7 yards per carry, and I think that means Derrick Henry and Co. are going to be in for a long night.

Bets: Falcons -3 (-118, DraftKings) and Same Game Parlay: Drake London anytime TD and over 80.5 receiving yards (+313, FanDuel)

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