When a franchise has a quarterback on a rookie deal, it’s a constant evaluation process. “Is this the quarterback that can win us a Lombardi trophy?” is the question that GMs and fanbases alike ask themselves on a weekly basis. Four weeks into the season, and I’d argue two young quarterbacks have answered that with a resounding “yes” who, prior to the season, we were far more unsure about, while numerous others with high hopes are still waiting for an answer. Here’s how every rookie contract starter has graded out through four weeks. 

Bryce Young: A+

Young has been given arguably the longest leash of any first-round quarterback in modern NFL history and that patience is finally bearing fruit in year four. Last year, Young ranked 27th among starters in EPA/dropback and barely cracked 3,000 yards for the season. Now, no one has more passing yards through four games than Young’s 1,268 (317 per game) and he ranks 9th in EPA/dropback. The Panthers have scored 32 or more points in three of their four games after accomplishing that feat precisely zero times a season ago. It’s the football equivalent of a caterpillar transforming into a butterfly.

So how did it happen exactly? The answer is obviously a confluence of factors, but I’d argue it’s two big things: his ability to diagnose presnap and his postsnap footwork. One of Young’s biggest selling points out of Alabama was his ability to create big plays outside of structure, and that’s continued in the league, where he’s averaged more yards per attempt on dropbacks over 2.6 seconds than under in every season in his career. The problem in the first three seasons, however, was that the inside of structure plays were a disaster. He rarely knew where best to go with the ball in rhythm and averaged 5.5 yards per attempt on throws under 2.6 seconds, his first three seasons. Yikes.

This year, that number is 7.8 and his completion percentage is up 7.0 points from his previous career high on such throws. Below is one of my favorite plays from Young this season, highlighting his presnap improvements (despite it coming in a loss).

A few things to unpack here. The first is his recognition of the blitz and adjustment of the protection by reducing the tight end to get an extra blocker involved. Then he notices that his back and receiver were both in motion at the same time, so he calls for Tetairoa McMillan to come to a set to avoid an illegal motion penalty. Finally, he shows no signs of hurrying in his footwork as he sets up to throw either the corner or out, depending on how the defenders sink, and once they declare, Young puts it right on his receiver’s chest.

It’s that calm footwork that’s the second-biggest area for growth. Young was always more of a loose athletic thrower of the football at Alabama rather than a robotic in-rhythm passer. He didn’t need to have his feet perfectly aligned to drop dimes. That habit, unfortunately, didn’t give him a consistent base to lean on when things got murky, and you saw his accuracy suffer because of it early in his career. Now he’s blending precision footwork with high-end athleticism and the results speak for themselves. Just look at how efficiently he gets from 1 to 2 on the play below.

And how he manipulates defenders with his feet and shoulders to create a throwing lane for himself.

This is big-boy quarterbacking, not some fluke. Am I betting on Young leading the league in passing yards this season? Probably not. But after what he’s put on tape, I would bet that he’s going to be the face of the Panthers franchise for a long time.

Tyler Shough: A-

If you had any doubts about Shough’s franchise quarterback worthiness after his rookie season, those should be put to bed emphatically after four weeks. He’s turned New Orleans into a top-10 scoring offense despite not having top-10 pick at wide receiver, Jordyn Tyson and with last year’s top-10 pick at left tackle, Kelvin Banks, missing the past two games. While it hasn’t translated to their 1-3 record, the defense has been to blame, allowing an average of 37 points in their three losses. The poise under pressure is far beyond Shough’s years for a second-year quarterback as he’s third in passing yards under pressure and averaging 7.2 yards per attempt when pressured.

I think the most impressive thing about Shough’s start is how well he’s handled the volume. He’s averaged 53 dropbacks per game this season – far and away the most in the NFL. And I’d argue that he’s done a great job taking care of the football, given what he’s asked to do, despite four interceptions. Because of those four picks, one was a miscommunication, another was when he was hit by his backup left tackle, and the final one was tipped at the line of scrimmage. So if you are looking for pure efficiency stats, his aren’t going to compare to someone like Brock Purdy, who has over 20 fewer dropbacks per game, as a lot of Shough’s completions are extensions of the run game, so to speak.

CJ Stroud: B+

After back-to-back seasons asking what’s wrong with C.J. Stroud, it’s tragically ironic that the Texans are 0-4 with Stroud looking the best he has since his rookie campaign. He’s averaging 7.6 yards per attempt and has yet to throw an interception despite no upgrades to the Texans’ supporting cast. The offensive line ranks 20th in PFF pass-blocking grade, #1 receiver Nico Collins has missed two games, #2 receiver Jayden Higgins is out for the year, and the Texans are dead last in rushing success rate.

His game-losing fumble at the end of the Texans Week 1 loss to the Bills is the only thing keeping this grade from being in the A-range and even then he redeemed himself in the clutch with late go-ahead touchdown drives against the Colts and Texans the past two weeks. There’s a lot of finger-pointing to go around in Houston, but I’d point at a lot of different parts of this roster before I point at the quarterback.

Drake Maye: C

Maye coming out on top over the weekend in his duel vs. Josh Allen confirmed that there’s nothing to be worried about with Maye long-term. Despite being pressured on half his dropbacks against the Bills, according to ESPN, Maye still finished with a .33 EPA/dropback after that figure was -.07 the first three weeks. That early season stretch with six interceptions and nine sacks as the Patriots limped out to 1-2. Of all the quarterbacks on this list, there’s still no one else I’d take over Maye if I had to choose one to start a franchise with.

Bo Nix: D

No one plays down to their competition quite like Nix. It has to be quite the frustrating experience for Broncos faithful. He’s fully capable of leading multiple fourth-quarter scoring drives against some of the best defenses in the league and also fully capable of turning into a pumpkin against one of the worst defenses in the league. Through four weeks, it’s been more pumpkin than anything else for the 2-2 Broncos, averaging 18.5 points per game.

The obvious question is, after the broken ankle that caused him to miss the AFC championship game last year required two offseason surgeries, could that be a factor in his poor performance? Nix himself has emphatically denied it and the tape has shown no difference in his mobility or arm strength. There could always be residual mental effects when rehabbing a serious injury, though. His penchant for the checkdown has been particularly pronounced this season, with a league-leading 31 according to PFF. I highly doubt any mental effects would last more than a game or two, so I think we can chalk that up to Bo Nix being Bo Nix.

No, this four-game rough patch seems like nothing more than a classic Nix lull, which is usually followed by some sort of crest that entrenches Nix as one of the league’s most hotly debated franchise quarterbacks. Because make no mistake, the Broncos are not moving on from him anytime soon, even if this lull lasts longer than normal.

Cam Ward: D-

Everything I said earlier about Bryce Young being a loose athlete rather than a robotic pocket passer applied to Ward coming out of Miami as well, and the Titans quarterback seems to be going through similar early-career struggles because of it. The one word I kept coming back to is not one you want to hear about a quarterback: sloppy. He almost never gets his feet lined up past his first read to make an on-time and accurate throw. Almost all of his second reads are either all arm throws or breaking the pocket entirely.

Which brings up the second biggest issue I saw on tape: feeling pressure. When Ward feels pressure, he almost always turns into a scrambler. He’s talented enough to still make plays, but the elite at the position know when to hang with progressions in collapsing pockets. On 41 pressured dropbacks this season, Ward managed four completions for 20 yards from the pocket (with five completions for 68 yards breaking the pocket). To put that into perspective, Ward’s 20 yards rank 37th in the NFL. Yes, four backups have more while Jared Goff leads the league at 365 such yards (with Bryce Young second at 305). You cannot win in the NFL playing like that, even if Ward has supreme arm talent on the move.

Injured QBs

Caleb Williams

Williams was beyond electric in Week 1 as the Bears racked up nearly 60 points against the Panthers. His hamstring injury against the Vikings in Week 2 raises a worrisome trend in Williams’s performance, however: how reliant the third-year quarterback has become on his legs. Williams has broken the pocket on 34 of his 75 dropbacks this season (45.3%). That is by far the highest rate in the NFL. He’s so insanely dynamic that he gets away with it, but the physical tool and injury risk is heightened because of it.

Jayden Daniels

Speaking of injury risk, Daniels is entering scary territory. He dislocated his left elbow for a second time in his career, in Week 2 and has been out ever since. That is now the sixth separate injury Daniels has suffered in his career that has caused him to miss time (12 full games). While he’s avoided major season-ending injuries, the trend is terrifying nonetheless.

Jaxson Dart

The unfortunate part about Dart’s season-ending knee injury is that he still had a lot to prove after his rookie season. The biggest of which, ironically, is that he could play quarterback effectively without sacrificing his long-term health. He’s already been evaluated for a concussion six times in his NFL career because he plays a free-wheeling style of football.

Michael Penix Jr.

Penix’s injury history was well-documented coming into the NFL, and unfortunately, it reared its ugly head in his first full season as he partially tore his ACL. It caused him to miss the first two weeks, during which the Falcons’ offense looked hapless without him. With Penix over the past two weeks, however, Atlanta has looked like a juggernaut in primetime, stacking up 35 points against the Packers and 45 points against the Saints in back-to-back wins. It’s been slightly aided by 447 rushing yards in that two-game span, but Penix has been a pinnacle of efficiency himself with his .484 EPA/dropback ranking second among quarterbacks with 50+ dropbacks this season. What a start.

Former starters no longer in the mix

Spencer Rattler

Rattler likely did enough in his time with New Orleans to cement a long career as a backup at this point. I’m not sure there will be too many teams beating down his door for a starting role when his contract expires after 2027, unless something changes.

JJ McCarthy

McCarthy was active for the Giants this past week after being traded away for a 5th-rounder by the Vikings. I think it’s highly unlikely he unseats Jameis Winston for the starting role, given his inexperience in the offense and, well, how bad he was last season.

Shedeur Sanders, Dillon Gabriel

I don’t see either of these two starting again in Cleveland this year or beyond, and with where they were drafted, they weren’t supposed to.

Will Levis

Levis, at his peak, was one of the most fun quarterbacks to watch in the NFL. After a shoulder injury caused him to miss the 2025 season, his 2026 preseason made it clear he hadn’t shaken the reckless streak that plagued him as a starter. He’s the only player on this list currently on a practice squad.

Anthony Richardson

Of all the former starters included here, Richardson was easily the most intriguing this preseason. After whispers about him being relegated to QB3, Richardson locked down the backup job in Indy this fall. With Richardson still being younger than Carson Beck, it wouldn’t surprise me if he gets another shot somewhere as a free agent next season.