The millions of Americans who rely on Social Security could see their monthly benefit checks slashed by an average of about $500 if the program’s retirement trust fund becomes insolvent, a scenario currently projected for the end of 2032.

The reduction would amount to a 24% cut in the typical benefit payment, according to a new analysis from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a fiscal policy think tank.

Social Security’s trust fund helps cover the gap between the program’s income and benefit obligations, which have outpaced revenue as the baby boom generation retires and the number of beneficiaries grows. Once the fund is depleted, benefits would be automatically reduced unless Congress acts to shore up the program’s finances.

The impact would impact between 10% to 23% of each state’s population, the analysis found. 

“No state would be spared from the potentially devastating effects of insolvency,” the report says.

States facing the largest monthly benefit cuts include:

• Connecticut, with an average $556 cut
• Delaware, $549
• Maryland, $541
• Massachusetts, $527
• Michigan, $523
• Minnesota, $530
• New Hampshire, $553
• New Jersey, $554
• Utah, $523
• Washington, $531

Insolvency does not mean Social Security beneficiaries would stop receiving payments altogether. Even after trust fund reserves are depleted, the program would continue collecting payroll tax revenue, allowing it to pay benefits at a reduced level.

Key report coming soon

The new analysis comes ahead of this year’s release of the Social Security Administration’s annual Trustees Report, which will provide an updated estimate of when the agency’s trust fund is projected to become insolvent. The report is expected to be released in the coming weeks. 

Last year’s report projected an insolvency date of 2033 for one of the agency’s two key trust funds, known as the Old-Age & Survivors Insurance Trust Fund (OASI). At that point, the program would only be able to pay 77% of the current benefit amount, according to the Social Security Administration. 

The agency has since moved the insolvency date for OASI to the end of 2032, citing the One Big Beautiful Bill Act’s effect on taxation of benefits.

Social Security cuts would prove devastating for the nation’s retirees, as many rely heavily on the monthly payments, experts say. According to a survey released last year by the Senior Citizens League, a nonprofit advocacy group, 73% of retirees depend on Social Security for more than half their income, while 39% depend on it for the entirety of their income.

Solving Social Security’s funding issues would require action from policymakers. One such proposal would be to eliminate the income cap on the payroll tax, which exempts people who earn more than $184,500 from paying Social Security taxes on any amount above that.