Yankees vs. Blue Jays prediction: Odds, recent stats, trends, and best bets for May 18

The Yankees (28-19) and the Blue Jays (21-25) open a four‑game series tonight at Yankee Stadium. It is the first meeting between these teams since the Jays defeated the Yankees in the postseason last year.

New York arrives home after a 2-7 road trip that saw them most recently lose two of three over the weekend to the Mets. Despite their recent run of poor results, the Yankees are just three games back of the surprising Tampa Bay Rays. The Jays are climbing out of a rude start to their season. Winners of two straight over the weekend in Detroit and five of their last ten, Toronto is now third in the AL East but still 9.5 games out of first place. The matchup carries extra narrative weight after last season’s tense battles, including Toronto’s decisive ALDS victory and the viral “start spreading the news” moment that fueled the rivalry’s intensity.

On the mound, the Yankees turn to left‑hander Ryan Weathers, who has been excellent of late, allowing two earned runs or fewer in each of his last four starts and posting a 1.88 ERA over that span. Toronto counters with veteran lefty Patrick Corbin, who has delivered at least 15 outs in four of his last six outings and continues to provide surprising stability in the rotation. Both pitchers lean heavily on fastballs, setting up intriguing matchups against power hitters on each side.

Offensively for Toronto, all eyes will be on Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who broke out of a slump yesterday with a two‑hit performance, including his first homer in nearly a month. His career numbers at Yankee Stadium are strong, and analytics suggest he’s primed for continued positive regression. Toronto will also look to Kazuma Okamoto, who leads the team in home runs with ten and matches up well against the fastball‑heavy pitching of the Yankees. For New York, stars like Aaron Judge and Cody Bellinger have historically hit Corbin well.

There will be energy at Yankee Stadium as New York looks to exact a small bit of revenge against the Blue Jays who dominated the Yankees last season.

Lets dive into tonight’s matchup and find a sweat or two.

We’ve got all the info and analysis you need to know ahead of the game, including the latest info on the how to catch first pitch, odds, recent team performance, player stats, and of course, our predictions, picks & best bets for the game from our modeling tools and staff of experts.

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Game Details and How to Watch: Yankees vs. Blue Jays

Date: Monday, May 18, 2026
Network/Streaming: MLB.TV, Sportsnet One, YES

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The Latest Odds: Yankees vs. Blue Jays

The latest odds as of Mondayday courtesy of DraftKings:

Moneyline: New York Yankees (-175), Toronto Blue Jays (+144)
Spread: Yankees -1.5 (+114), Blue Jays +1.5 (-138)

Probable Starting Pitchers: Yankees vs. Blue Jays

Pitching matchup for May 18:

Yankees: Ryan Weathers
Season Totals: 45.0 IP, 2-2, 3.00 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 54K, 13 BB
Blue Jays: Patrick Corbin
Season Totals: 34.1 IP, 1-1, 3.93 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 22K, 10 BB

Who’s Hot? Who’s Not! Yankees vs. Blue Jays

Anthony Volpe has walked 7 times in 4 games since being promoted from the minors
After a blistering start to the month, Cody Bellinger is just 2-22 over his last 6 games
Aaron Judge has not gone yard in 7 games
Vlad Guerrero Jr. homered yesterday for the first time since April 20 against the Angels
After going 8-17 earlier this month, Ernie Clement is 1-11 over his last 4 games

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Top Betting Trends & Insights: Yankees vs. Blue Jays

The Blue Jays are 8-14 on the road this season
The Yankees are 14-6 at home this season
The Yankees are 25-22 on the Run Line this season
The Jays are 19-27 on the Run Line this season
The OVER has cashed 21 times in Toronto games this season (21-23-2)
The OVER has cashed 20 times for the Yankees this season (20-24-3)

If you’re looking for more key trends and stats around the spread, moneyline and total for every single game on the schedule today, check out our MLB Top Trends tool on NBC Sports!

Expert picks & predictions: Yankees vs. Blue Jays

Rotoworld Bet Best Bet

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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the MLB calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, ballpark information and weather forecasts.

Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.

Here are the best bets our model is projecting for today’s game between the Yankees and the Blue Jays:

Moneyline: Rotoworld Bet is recommending a play on the Yankees on the Moneyline.
Spread: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play on the Yankees on the Run Line
Total: Rotoworld Bet is staying away from a play of the Game Total BUT is recommending a play on the Yankees Team Total OVER 4.5.

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