JetBlue has been expanding rapidly at Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport (FLL) for over a year now, becoming the number one carrier at the low-cost hub. Then, just hours after the demise of Spirit, it announced the launch of 11 new routes from the airport, a clear sign that the airline sees a rare opportunity to absorb some of the traffic left behind by its ex-competitor in markets where low fares, leisure demand, and visiting-friends-and-relatives (VFR) traffic overlap.

Fort Lauderdale is the obvious first move, but it is unlikely to be the only one. The more interesting question is where JetBlue goes next. The airline is not likely to replace Spirit route for route, but rather cherry-pick airports where it already has relevance, where Spirit had enough scale to prove that demand exists, and where JetBlue can offer passengers a more premium alternative without abandoning price-sensitive travelers entirely.

Orlando Is The Clearest Next Spirit Replacement Market

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Orlando International Airport (MCO) stands out as the next most attractive target, because it has almost everything JetBlue would want in a follow-up to Fort Lauderdale. Spirit had a large network there with 33 routes, while JetBlue already has a meaningful presence of a similar size with 29 routes, meaning the carrier has the opportunity to effectively double its market share if it makes the right moves.

Orlando is also unique in that it’s not a legacy carrier hub, yet serves a deep mix of leisure, family, and price-sensitive traffic, which is neatly aligned with JetBlue’s ideal passengers. In other words, Orlando would not be a speculative growth market for JetBlue; it is an existing focus city where additional aircraft and frequencies would make strategic sense.

Next on the list is Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR), where Spirit was the second-largest carrier after United Airlines. Many readers might question this choice, given that JetBlue already has a massive operation at nearby New York JFK Airport (JFK), where it is second to only Delta Air Lines.

But JetBlue already operates 13 routes from EWR, which has an almost entirely different catchment area from JFK, giving the carrier new lanes on its Northeast-to-Florida network highway. JetBlue is also better placed than other competitors to fill the Spirit gap at EWR because it already has a strong brand presence in the greater New York / New Jersey market, and a proven ability to be able to co-exist and compete with a legacy carrier in the region.

By contrast, San Juan’s Luis Munoz Marin International Airport (SJU) is a very different type of prospect, as JetBlue is already the largest carrier on the island. Yet the disappearance of Spirit will provide it with gaps to increase capacity and add new routes to further entrench its position. Similarly, JetBlue has opportunities at Tampa International Airport (TPA) and Fort Myers (RSW) to strengthen its presence in Florida leisure markets where Southwest Airlines has long been dominant.

The airports left off the list are just as important. Atlanta, Detroit, Houston, Chicago, and Las Vegas were all top ten airports for Spirit and important in different ways, but they are less natural JetBlue replacement markets. Atlanta and Detroit are fortress hubs for Delta. Houston and Chicago are dominated by United and are operationally harder for JetBlue to scale.

Las Vegas’ Harry Reid International Airport (LAS) is an excellent example: It’s large and leisure-focused, but it does not connect as cleanly to JetBlue’s East Coast, Florida, and Caribbean network strategy. It’s a reminder that JetBlue’s opportunity is not to become the next Spirit everywhere; it is to replace Spirit where JetBlue already has a reason and ability to win.

The Most Obvious Adds Are Proven VFR Routes

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Beyond the airports, the routes most likely to see more JetBlue service fall into two buckets. The first is almost-certain capacity growth on routes JetBlue already flies, such as Orlando-Newark or San Juan-Orlando. Those markets do not require a new station, new marketing push, or major customer education. JetBlue can simply add frequencies, up-gauge aircraft, or time flights around peaks.

The second bucket is more interesting: true gaps where Spirit proved demand exists, but JetBlue does not currently fly nonstop. Orlando-Philadelphia is probably the cleanest example. It links one of the country’s largest leisure destinations with a major Northeast metro area, and JetBlue has already had strong success linking the “City of Brotherly Love” with its FLL base and just added a route from SJU as well. Newark-Fort Lauderdale is another obvious candidate, especially given JetBlue’s new push at FLL and Spirit’s previous strength at EWR.

Not every route on the list is equally likely. Orlando-Newark, San Juan-Orlando, and San Juan-Fort Lauderdale are the safest bets because they are already within JetBlue’s core map. Orlando-Cleveland, Orlando-Detroit, and Orlando-Pittsburgh are more speculative because they push JetBlue deeper into Midwest-Florida flying, where it has historically been less aggressive. Still, these are exactly the kind of price-sensitive leisure routes that Spirit demonstrated could work, and JetBlue showed when announcing its most recent FLL expansion that it was increasingly targeting Midwest destinations.

But JetBlue Won’t Have It All Its Own Way

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Of course, it’s not just JetBlue that is looking to fill the Spirit vacuum, and the biggest competitive threat is Frontier Airlines. In many former Spirit markets, Frontier is the true Ultra-Low-Cost Carrier substitute that matches most closely on price and business model, and it also has every incentive to move quickly. That matters because, as a hybrid carrier, JetBlue will not usually be the cheapest option. Its pitch is different: a more comfortable onboard product, free Wi-Fi, seatback screens, and a loyalty program that can appeal to travelers who want value but not the bare-bones ULCC experience.

Allegiant Air and Breeze Airways further complicate the picture in different ways. Allegiant is less likely to fight JetBlue frequency-for-frequency at the biggest airports, but it is very relevant in Florida leisure markets, especially where it can connect smaller cities to warm-weather destinations. Breeze, meanwhile, has built its model around thinner underserved routes, and is the fastest-growing airline in the US, making it a potential spoiler in places like Tampa, Orlando, and Fort Myers.

That’s why JetBlue’s current offer of a status match for former Spirit customers is more than a marketing gimmick. It is a direct attempt to capture passengers who may now be reconsidering their loyalty habits. For former Spirit flyers, JetBlue is probably the most natural replacement among the larger US airlines: not as cheap as Spirit at its lowest fares, but more familiar to leisure travelers than the legacies and much stronger in the Florida, New York, Boston, and Caribbean corridors that defined much of Spirit’s appeal.