We’re just over two weeks into the 2026 FIFA World Cup and after an incredible group stage filled with drama and magic in equal measure, Sunday sees the tournament flip into win-or-go-home mode as the round of 32 kicks off when Canada take on South Africa in Los Angeles.

The action has been breathless and brilliant. The game’s superstars have played well and truly shown up — Lionel Messi has six goals, with Kylian Mbappé, Ousmane Dembélé, Vinícius Júnior and Erling Haaland hot on his heels at four each — though only Mexico, France and Argentina went a perfect 3-for-3 in the group stage when it came to results.

We’ve had upsets galore, with South Africa finishing second in Group A after beating South Korea, tiny Cape Verde finishing second in Group H with three draws that were very different in nature — remember the name Vozinha — and advancing to the knockouts in their World Cup debut, along with Congo DR emerging as one of the eight-best third-placed teams to book a date with England in the next round.

So with the group stage complete and the 48-team field whittled down to 32, how does the field look?

As we did at several points before and during the World Cup — from 100 days out to after Games 1 and 2 — we’re looking at how our global reporters feel about the tournament from a contenders vs. pretenders perspective as the round of 32 begins. We asked our panel of 20 reporters to rank their top 15 favorites from No. 1 (meaning the trophy is theirs) to No. 15 (the cool outsider’s pick for a tournament shock) and compiled their ballots into the collective ranking below.

– Connelly: Why every R32 team will, won’t win World Cup
– O’Hanlon: Grades for eliminated World Cup teams
– World Cup 2026: Fixtures, results and all coverage

Editor’s note: Voting was concluded before Sunday’s round of 32 began with Canada facing South Africa. Our next Power Rankings will publish the morning after the round of 16.

ESPN FC’s World Cup Power Rankings after two games

1. FRANCE (no change)

– Group I games: Defeated Senegal 2-0; defeated Iraq 3-0; defeated Norway 4-1
– Round-of-32 opponent: Sweden (Tuesday, in New York/New Jersey)

While Spain topped all three of our pre-World Cup Power Rankings, since the party kicked off on June 11, our voters have only had eyes for Les Bleus at the top of the heap, and it’s not hard to see why.

For one, they have Mbappé up front, a man seemingly on a mission to make sure his country don’t finish runners-up again like they did to Argentina in 2022. He’s also surrounded by superstars that can take the reins where needed: for example, Dembélé reminded us of his Ballon d’Or credentials by scoring a first-half hat trick — the second-fastest treble in World Cup history — against a second-string Norway side on Friday.

The bracket has set up for them fairly well, with a round-of-16 date vs. Germany or Paraguay, followed by one of Netherlands/Morocco/South Africa/Canada in the quarterfinals, and they haven’t really had to dig deep yet to pull out a result. Their counterattacking style is perfect for their talent, they take a ton of high-quality shots, Michael Olise (tournament-high three assists) is perfect in the No. 10 position, and nobody is battling fitness issues.

We’ll have a much clearer sense of their serenity the first time they have to chase a game, though, and their sit-back defense could be exploitable by Sweden’s two-pronged Viktor Gyökeres/Alexander Isak attack depending on whether those two show up or not. For now, though, 16 of 20 first-place votes tells its own story.

2. ARGENTINA (no change)

– Group J games: Defeated Algeria 3-0; defeated Austria 2-0; defeated Jordan 3-1
– Round-of-32 opponent: Cape Verde (Friday, in Miami)

Firmly locked in second behind France is Lionel Messi & Co., also one of only three teams besides France to receive first-place voters from our reporters. They took it easy against Jordan on Saturday night with their spot in the round of 32 already confirmed, resting a bunch of stars for tougher tests ahead, though Messi still had enough magic in his shoes to come off the bench in the second half and score a lovely free kick — in doing so, he became the first player in men’s World Cup history to score in seven straight games, a streak going back to the 2022 knockout rounds.

Not bad, right? Their path through the bracket is gentle enough — assuming they sweep past Cinderella story Cape Verde, they could meet Australia or Egypt next, followed by one of Switzerland, Algeria, Colombia or Ghana in the quarterfinals — but Argentina are a smaller, technical side in a tournament filled with bruising, physical giants from here. If their midfield suddenly struggles to locate Messi in and around goal, they’ll need a Plan B when things get tough.

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3. SPAIN (no change)

– Group H games: Drew 0-0 vs. Cape Verde; defeated Saudi Arabia 4-0; defeated Uruguay 1-0
– Round-of-32 opponent: Austria (Thursday, in Los Angeles)

Our voters still think La Roja, the defending European champions, are third best in the field though it’s a big gap between them and the top two in voting, with a handful of voters even putting them outside their top five. So what’s going wrong here?

Saudi Arabia aside, Spain have looked labored as manager Luis de la Fuente is still searching for the right combinations around the field to best support teenage superstar Lamine Yamal. (The Barcelona wonderkid, for his part, is slowly getting back to full fitness and has had his minutes managed, but now’s the time for him to show what he can do.)

Rodri has been below-par at the base of midfield and that has had knock-on effects all over the pitch, with Spain dominating possession but creating little. Mikel Oyarzabal has been ineffective as the center forward in a team lacking a dominant No. 9, the fullback play has been so-so and Unai Simón isn’t the assertive, confident presence they need in goal.

The Uruguay game was a mess, with Spain’s only goal coming from an all-time goalkeeping error and their buildup play was easily disrupted by an aggressive opponent fighting for a chance to remain at the World Cup. In the end, Spain survived and topped their group — mission accomplished — but they’re out of free passes and can’t afford to keep playing like this with a bracket path that could put Cristiano Ronaldo and Portugal in front of them in the round of 16.

4. ENGLAND (no change)

– Group L games: Defeated Croatia 4-2; drew 0-0 vs. Ghana; defeated Panama 2-0
– Round-of-32 opponent: Congo DR (Wednesday, in Atlanta)

Why is it that England always make things look so un-fun? For a team laden with top-tier talent and fronted by one-man scoring machine Harry Kane, its football has looked rather labored and grim so far at this World Cup, with one really good half (against Croatia) now seeming like a distant memory. They can turn it on when needed — two goals in five minutes finally ended Panama’s stoic resistance on Saturday — but World Cups need a bit more consistency if you’re to make a deep run.

That said, our voters remain bullish on them as a credible pick to win it all, but two things need to happen. For one, they need to turn up the tempo and figure out how to break down low-block defenses without any real line-breaking passers in the squad. (Remember, Thomas Tuchel left all the ballers at home, when any one of Cole Palmer, Phil Foden or Morgan Gibbs-White could have added a necessary unpredictability to their buildup play.)

The other thing: convert your chances. England are in the top six when it comes to shots on target at this World Cup, but they’re also leading all 48 teams in big chances missed. Relying on their elegant defense (third-best at World Cup in xG conceded) and hoping to win every game 1-0 isn’t a recipe for greatness. That said, the bracket (Congo DR next, followed by Mexico or Ecuador) should give them time to figure things out.

5. BRAZIL (up 1)

– Group C games: Drew 1-1 vs. Morocco; defeated Haiti 3-0; defeated Scotland 3-0
– Round-of-32 opponent: Japan (Monday, in Houston)

This has been the most fun Brazil side we’ve seen in a while, with all things flowing through Vinícius Júnior (four goals) and manager Carlo Ancelotti simply letting his stars do the talking. They didn’t have the most difficult group stage draw, but showed their range against three very different opponents, bunkering down against a tough Morocco before unleashing the flair in a pair of 3-0 wins to launch them into the round of 32.

Nobody has truly tested their defense yet, and there is a hint of concern about how Brazil’s veteran rearguard would handle a more assertive opponent, but it’s all sunshine with the Selecao right now and our voters are behind them. I think we’re all hoping we get to see how Marquinhos (32), Casemiro (34) and Alisson in goal would hold up against Norway in the round of 16 if both teams get past their first opponents.

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6. GERMANY (down 1)

– Group E games: Defeated Curaçao 7-1; defeated Ivory Coast 2-1; lost 2-1 vs. Ecuador
– Round-of-32 opponent: Paraguay (Monday, in Boston)

Germany are the ultimate “they look great when things go their way” team at this World Cup, which is worrying if they’re actually hoping to win this thing on July 19 at MetLife Stadium. After cruising past Curaçao in the opener, they needed a late goal to beat Ivory Coast and then barely created a scoring chance after the second minute vs. Ecuador, who roared back to largely dominate the second half and pick up the win instead.

In the past, Germany’s sides have been defined by their ability to control games, and we’ve not really seen it yet besides that opening 7-1. While Kai Havertz, Florian Wirtz and Jamal Musiala have lived up to expectations in attack, the defense hasn’t been at the same level yet, and it’ll only get harder without key defender Nico Schlotterbeck (out for the tournament).

If the best form of defense is attack, now’s the time to start showing it, with a stodgy Paraguay side up next in the round of 32, followed by France or Sweden from there.

7. NETHERLANDS (no change)

– Group F games: Drew 2-2 vs. Japan; defeated Sweden 5-1; defeated Tunisia 3-1
– Round-of-32 opponent: Morocco (Monday, in Monterrey, Mexico)

The Oranje are peaking nicely after an opening draw with Japan, making light work of Sweden and then cruising to victory over Tunisia on Thursday to set up a round-of-32 date with Morocco. While they have no one standout superstar, they’re playing extremely well as a team on the front foot. Everyone is playing their part: Cody Gakpo has been potent on the left wing, Brian Brobbey’s bruising play at center forward is effective, the Virgil van Dijk/Jan Paul van Hecke center-back duo looks comfortable, and Ryan Gravenberch has dictated play elegantly from midfield.

That said, Morocco might be one of the worst round-of-32 draws for any team left in the tournament, and if Dutch boss Ronald Koeman (a no-nonsense defender in his playing days) pushes his team to a more defense-first approach from here, they could struggle. This is a team built to attack, not bunker.

8. MOROCCO (up 2)

– Group C games: Drew 1-1 vs. Brazil; defeated Scotland 1-0; defeated Haiti 4-2
– Round-of-32 opponent: Netherlands (Monday, in Monterrey, Mexico)

After we doubted their attacking abilities following two games, Morocco opened up a little against Haiti and showed that they can generate quality chances, with 22 shots, an xG of 3.76 and fully 70% of possession in a wide-open affair. Ismael Saibari (three goals) is the classic “big man in attack” who feels like a cheat code at the international level, and Bilal El Khannouss is a tricky winger who will take on any defender.

However, we’re just not sure they have the bench to hang on in games when stars get tired; this is a team that will go as far as its best XI can take it.

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9. COLOMBIA (up 5)

– Group K games: Defeated Uzbekistan 3-1; defeated Congo DR 1-0; drew 0-0 vs. Portugal
– Round-of-32 opponent: Ghana (Friday, in Kansas City)

Behold, the biggest climbers yet in our Power Rankings! Colombia haven’t been must-watch TV yet, but they’re going to be a tough out at this World Cup if they keep playing like they did against Portugal on Saturday, smothering their stars and looking far more dangerous (1.63 xG to Portugal’s 0.7), when they are able to get the ball to Luis Díaz or James Rodríguez in wide areas.

So far, they seem like the biggest “sleeper” candidate given that they come from outside the traditional powers, have talent where it counts around the pitch, they’re outworking opponents just about everywhere on the pitch, and they get nearly a full week before their round-of-32 game with Ghana. Finishing at the top of their group also means they could have an easier round-of-16 opponent if they advance (Switzerland or Algeria) before a potentially tasty date with Messi and Argentina in the quarterfinals.

10. PORTUGAL (down 2)

– Group K games: Drew 1-1 vs. Congo DR; defeated Uzbekistan 5-0; drew 0-0 vs. Colombia
– Round-of-32 opponent: Croatia (Thursday, in Toronto)

One of the World Cup’s most dominant possession teams (they average over 60% of the ball through three games) need to start doing something with that possession if they want to make a deep run. Our voters dinged them for a dismal 0-0 draw against Colombia in which they actually had less of the ball, mustered just two shots on target and were lucky to get a point considering Davinson Sánchez’s 92nd-minute header was waved off by the VAR for having his toe in an offside position.

Ronaldo did net two goals against Uzbekistan, but he had just 35 touches in Saturday’s stalemate and only touched the ball twice inside the penalty area. If Portugal are to make a run — the bracket has them facing Spain or Austria if they get past Croatia, followed by either the U.S., Bosnia-Herzegovina, Belgium or Senegal beyond that — they need that all-world midfield of Vitinha, Bruno Fernandes and João Neves to be more effective.

Oh, and maybe they could bench Ronaldo? His outsized presence and insistence to clog up the best scoring positions isn’t quite working. Just a thought.

11. NORWAY (down 2)

– Group I games: Defeated Iraq 4-1; defeated Senegal 3-2; lost 4-1 vs. France
– Round-of-32 opponent: Ivory Coast (Tuesday, in Dallas)

Our voters hammered Norway for running out a second-string XI against France and losing 4-1; while probably the sensible choice, we’re all a bit mad they denied us the Mbappé vs. Erling Haaland duel we’d been waiting for since the group-stage draw was completed back in December. Maybe it was gamesmanship, maybe it was pragmatism or maybe it was fear: either way, they have little time to dwell ahead of a difficult round-of-32 draw.

They’re still lurking around the top 10 for their potential rather than their past performance — Haaland on his day can win games by himself, while Martin Ødegaard has added maturity to his creativity in attacking midfield — but their defense isn’t as good as their attack, and Ivory Coast’s assertiveness should keep Norway on the back foot, which is not the way they like to play.

Norway will go as far as Haaland can take them; the question is … how far is that?

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12. UNITED STATES (down 1)

– Group D games: Defeated Paraguay 4-1; defeated Australia 2-0; lost 3-2 vs. Türkiye
– Round-of-32 opponent: Bosnia & Herzegovina (Wednesday, in San Francisco)

The co-hosts’ early momentum was clipped somewhat in a “play the bench” defeat against Türkiye, though with their bracket path already locked, keeping their stars healthy and out of yellow card trouble were their primary objectives. Job done, then, though our voters didn’t reward such sensibility with positive votes.

Christian Pulisic has yet to really catch fire at this World Cup — he has one assist in 77 minutes total while managing a calf injury suffered against Paraguay — but striker Folarin Balogun has been potent, the midfield trio of Tyler Adams, Weston McKennie and Malik Tillman appear to be a winning combination, and their aggressive pressing style has yielded goals. We’re just not sure how their defense (anchored by star Chris Richards and elder statesman Tim Ream) will hold up in the cauldron of the bracket: If they get past Bosnia and Herzegovina, they could get Belgium (who knocked them out in 2014) or Senegal (a team with nothing to lose).

While home-field advantage still works at this level, one mistake is all it takes in bracket play.

13. MEXICO (no change)

– Group A games: Defeated South Africa 2-0; defeated South Korea 1-0; defeated Czechia 3-0
– Round-of-32 opponent: Ecuador (Tuesday, in Mexico City)

El Tri continue to be underrated by our voters, despite being one of just three teams (alongside Argentina and France) to go a perfect 3-0-0 in the group stage. Julián Quiñones and Roberto Alvarado are the ideal blend of counterattacking intent and defensive workrate out wide, Raúl Jiménez (one goal) is a savvy target man for their crosses, and fullbacks Mateo Sanchez (who had a lovely goal vs. Czechia) and Jorge Sánchez understand their roles in manager Javier Aguirre’s system.

Also, playing in front of incredible home crowds has felt like a 12th man on the pitch for them, but will that formula work against an Ecuador team that are experienced and have overcome such stress before?

14. JAPAN (down 2)

– Group F games: Drew 2-2 vs. Netherlands; defeated Tunisia 4-0; drew 1-1 vs. Sweden
– Round-of-32 opponent: Brazil (Monday, in Houston)

The Samurai Blue still linger around the fringes of our Power Rankings thanks to a tidy draw with Sweden that gave them a tricky matchup with Brazil in the round of 32. They’re as solid a team as you’ll find in this competition: 10 players have goal involvements through three games (tied with Germany for tournament best), their handful of stars (Daizen Maeda, Ritsu Doan, Daichi Kamada) are stepping up and they’re as comfortable with the ball as they are out of possession.

However, Brazil are a tough matchup and will test Japan’s collective.

15. BELGIUM (new)

– Group G games: Drew 1-1 vs. Egypt; drew 0-0 vs. Iran; defeated New Zealand 5-1
– Round-of-32 opponent: Senegal (Wednesday, in Seattle)

A late flurry of goals vs. New Zealand lifted a veteran Belgium side into our top 15 at Ivory Coast’s expense, with Kevin De Bruyne, Romelu Lukaku and Leandro Trossard making light work of a team that had nothing in reserve. They remain a threat in the knockouts because of their tournament experience, but tired older legs will only carry them so far.

Dropping out: Ivory Coast

Editor’s note: Our voting panel includes Sam Borden, Tom Hamilton, Mark Ogden, Bill Connelly, Armando Neria, Joey Lynch, Jeff Carlisle, Lizzy Becherano, James Olley, Damian Didonato, Rob Dawson, Gabe Tan, Cesar Hernandez, James Tyler, Julien Laurens, Gab Marcotti, Alex Kirkland, Sam Marsden, Beth Lindop, Ed Dove, Ryan O’Hanlon and Jon Molyneux-Carter.