It’s official: Tuesday marks 30 days until the 2026 World Cup kicks off in earnest, when Mexico host South Africa in Mexico City on June 11.

As we did at the 100 Days Out mark, we’re looking at how our global reporters feel about the tournament from a contenders vs. pretenders perspective. Asking them to rank their top 15 favorites from No. 1 (meaning “the trophy is theirs”) to No. 15 (“the cool outsider’s pick for a tournament shock”), we compiled their ballots into the collective ranking below.

Consider this your shorthand guide to the favorites next month, with some adjustments noted based on form, injuries and other intangibles.

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– Aggravation prompts fans to ask: Is World Cup worth it?

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ESPN FC’S World Cup Power Rankings, 30 days out

1. SPAIN

– FIFA Rank as of April 1: 2
– Group H games: vs. Cape Verde (June 15, Atlanta); vs. Saudi Arabia (June 21, Atlanta); vs. Uruguay (June 26, Guadalajara)

La Roja are still our collective favorites to win, but our voters distributed their first-place votes a little more equitably this time around considering the significant hamstring injury suffered by teenage winger Lamine Yamal, the player everyone can’t wait to watch. It’s likely the Barcelona star will recover in time to make the Spain squad, but any setback and it could be a difficult tournament.

Spain still boast an abundance of quality and should be able to play their way into the World Cup given they have a gentler group than some of their peers, but nobody takes anything for granted at this level and upsets are very much part of the competition’s enduring mystique.

2. FRANCE

– FIFA Rank as of April 1: 1
– Group I games: vs. Senegal (June 16, New York/New Jersey); vs. Iraq (June 22, Philadelphia); vs. Norway (June 26, Boston)

We’ve known for some time that this is manager Didier Deschamps’ last hurrah, having run a tight — and successful — Les Bleus side since 2012, winning the World Cup in 2018 and the UEFA Nations League in 2021. But there are some creeping concerns about their 2026 World Cup bid, and they don’t have an easy group in which to gain some much-needed form.

So, about this squad: Forward Kylian Mbappé is the undisputed vanguard, but some annoying minor injuries and some reported squad squabbles at Real Madrid mean this is hardly the World Cup buildup he would have been hoping for. Striker Hugo Ekitike will miss out entirely having picked up a serious injury with Liverpool earlier this year, and Deschamps must find clarity when it comes to where, and how, he lines up attacking midfielder Michael Olise so he gets the kind of dominant performances he’s been turning in for Bayern Munich.

This squad has arguably the most depth of any team taking part this summer, but will Deschamps pick the right combinations? A difficult group stage will show us whether they have what it takes to send their manager off on a high note, or whether the external stress becomes too much to overcome.

3. ARGENTINA

– FIFA Rank as of April 1: 3
– Group J games: vs. Algeria (June 16, Kansas City); vs. Austria (June 22, Dallas); vs. Jordan (June 27, Dallas)

Defending champions Argentina still rely on the 38-year-old Lionel Messi for inspiration when needed and he generally comes through; the fact that his playing time at Major League Soccer side Inter Miami has been carefully manage should mean he is in peak condition when Argentina kick off in Kansas City. However, what does this side still have to prove? And who else besides Messi is at their best coming into this tournament, considering the grueling European club season where most of these guys ply their trade?

For a start, projected defensive starters Cristian Romero and Lisandro Martínez are both carrying injuries and fatigue, while expected key contributors in midfield like Alexis Mac Allister and Rodrigo De Paul have not had brilliant seasons. Manager Lionel Scaloni is arguably well equipped to handle such turmoil, but someone other than Messi will need to rise. (Our money is on Julián Álvarez and Lautaro Martínez to come to the fore.)

4. ENGLAND

– FIFA Rank as of April 1: 4
– Group L games: vs. Croatia (June 17, Dallas); vs. Ghana (June 23, Boston); vs. Panama (June 27, New York/New Jersey)

As always, England have an abundance of talent and an unhelpful amount of pressure on their shoulders. Thomas Tuchel as manager feels like an upgrade to Gareth Southgate given his tactical nous, which is something that will come in very handy against three aggressive, physical and hard-working opponents in Group L.

That said, they received zero first-place votes in our ballot due to big question marks around their attacking midfield options behind the incandescent Harry Kane. Jude Bellingham, Phil Foden and Bukayo Saka — three of the four expected to line up behind the Bayern goalscorer — have had up-and-down seasons as well as injuries since the turn of the year, while right back Trent Alexander-Arnold has struggled to assert himself in LaLiga after moving to Real Madrid in the summer.

The key to England and “it” coming “home” — were it to actually happen, meaning a first World Cup for the Three Lions since 1966 — will be Tuchel’s ability to meet the moment with the right tactics, substitutions and adjustments if his Plan A isn’t working.

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5. BRAZIL

– FIFA Rank as of April 1: 6
– Group C games: vs. Morocco (June 13, New York/New Jersey); vs. Haiti (June 19, Philadelphia); vs. Scotland (June 24, Miami)

The Selecao haven’t won the World Cup since 2002, and bar one first-place vote in our Power Ranking, it doesn’t seem like our voters think this will be their year, either.

Since then, they’ve managed just one semifinal in five attempts, and injuries to several expected starters or impact subs — Éder Militão, Rodrygo, Estêvão — have blunted what was promising to be an exciting side. (First-choice keeper Alisson is also fighting to get fit in time, having suffered yet another muscle injury with Liverpool in 2026.) The lovable Carlo Ancelotti is their manager now, but without knowing if he’ll be there for the long term, this World Cup is one big question mark.

The good? Star forward Vinicius Jr. is ready to lead, Raphinha (if fully fit) is coming off a great year with Barcelona, 34-year-old Casemiro has returned to his best form at the base of midfield, and the Gabriel/Marquinhos central defensive pairing is as good as any at this level. As always for Brazil, it’ll come down to whether the talent can outshine the chaos.

6. PORTUGAL

– FIFA Rank as of April 1: 5
– Group K games: vs. DR Congo (June 17, Houston); vs. Uzbekistan (June 23, Houston); vs. Colombia (June 27, Miami)

Just like with the last Power Ranking in March at 100 days out, our voters feel there is a gap between Portugal and those teams in the top five, but on paper they look as strong as anyone else in the 48-yeam field. Paris Saint-Germain’s incandescent season has been orchestrated by several of Portugal’s starters (Nuno Mendes, João Neves, Vitinha), FWA award winner Bruno Fernandes is tearing it up in midfield for Manchester United (eight goals and 20 assists in all competition), and Cristiano Ronaldo is still scoring goals at 41.

The key for manager Roberto Martinez will be keeping the noise around Ronaldo to a minimum while putting his in-form stars in the best positions to excel.

7. GERMANY

– FIFA Rank as of April 1: 10
– Group E games: vs. Curacao (June 14, Houston); vs. Ivory Coast (June 20, Toronto); vs. Ecuador (June 25, New York/New Jersey)

There is a big voting gulf from Portugal down to Germany, which means Die Mannschaft are firmly the best of the rest in our estimation. They have one of the better tacticians in charge at this World Cup in Julian Nagelsmann, and he’ll need to use all of his magic to get a tune out of a squad with plenty of question marks hanging over them.

Will goalkeeper Oliver Baumann be able to handle the pressure between the posts? Who will score the goals given the wobbly form of Nick Woltemade and Kai Havertz up front? Can Nagelsmann get attacking midfielder Florian Wirtz back to his incandescent best after a difficult first year in Liverpool?

With a winnable group, there are chances to iron out the wrinkles before the knockouts begin, but things will need to run perfectly for Germany to add to their trophy cabinet.

8. NETHERLANDS

– FIFA Rank as of April 1: 7
– Group F games: vs. Japan (June 14, Dallas); vs. Sweden (June 20, Houston); vs. Tunisia (June 25, Kansas City)

This is not a vintage Dutch squad and several of their stars are limping through the end of their club campaigns, so we’re less bullish about them making a long run, or ven matching their quarterfinal finish in 2022. For example, captain Virgil van Dijk has played every single minute of the Premier League season so far for Liverpool, and it’s showing.

Alongside him, injuries have sapped Van de Ven and Timber of the kind of momentum they’d want in the final weeks before the World Cup, and we’re not sure where the goals are coming from, with Cody Gakpo and Donyell Malen hardly in the conversation for elite scorers at this level. Set pieces and organization will be their keys if they’re to perform well, but one of the tougher group draws make us skeptical.

9. MOROCCO

– FIFA Rank as of April 1: 8
– Group C games: vs. Brazil (June 13, New York/New Jersey); vs. Scotland (June 19, Boston); vs. Haiti (June 24, Atlanta)

Our highest-ranking African team, Morocco are in the midst of a golden moment for the national team. Their U20 team won their first-ever FIFA U-20 World Cup title in 2025, and their senior team are coming off a fourth-place finish at the 2022 World Cup, and a run to the Africa Cup of Nations title (albeit controversially, when appeals judges overturned Senegal’s victory after a chaotic final in January).

However, new manager Mohamed Ouahbi is the biggest wildcard as to their future success, as he has turned the Atlas Lions into a more front-foot, attacking team compared to the pragmatism of Walid Regragui. Much will depend on the form and fitness of full back Achraf Hakimi, as well as Ouahbi’s ability to mesh his new style — and new players — with the old guard.

10. NORWAY

– FIFA Rank as of April 1: 31
– Group H games: vs. Iraq (June 16, Boston); vs. Senegal (June 22, New York/New Jersey); vs. France (June 26, Boston)

Norway jumped two places in our Power Rankings compared to “100 Days to Go,” with confidence building given that star striker Erling Haaland is banging in goals again for Manchester City and midfielder Martin Ødegaard has returned to action for Arsenal. At this level, the one-two punch of an elite playmaker and dominant No. 9 go a long way, and Norway’s chances will hinge on being able to start hot against Iraq and make it so their final group game, against 2022 finalists France, won’t be a must-win.

11. BELGIUM

– FIFA Rank as of April 1: 9
– Group G games: vs. Egypt (June 15, Seattle); vs. Iran (June 21, Los Angeles); vs. New Zealand (June 26, Vancouver)

Belgium might not be as threatening as they were one or two World Cups ago, given the age and fitness of their top players (Romelu Lukaku, Kevin De Bruyne), but they are to be taken seriously. Recent friendlies against two of the three World Cup hosts ended well for them — a 5-2 win over the U.S. and 1-1 draw with Mexico — and their group should give them a chance to play into form.

The return to the squad of Real Madrid goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois, who quit the Belgium team due to issues with the previous manager Domenico Tedesco in 2023, is a major boost. On his day, Courtois is like an octopus between the posts, and he might need to be with a largely untested defense in front of him.

The biggest plus for this team is Jérémy Doku, who’s taken his game to new heights under Pep Guardiola at Manchester City and will fear no full back in front of him on the left wing. However, 32-year-old striker Lukaku has barely featured for Inter Milan in their Serie A winning season given injuries, and someone will need to step up and convert the good work of Doku and Charles De Ketelaere in wide areas.

12. COLOMBIA

– FIFA Rank as of April 1: 13
– Group H games: vs. Uzbekistan (June 17, Mexico City); vs. DR Congo (June 23, Guadalajara); vs. Portugal (June 27, Miami)

Colombia dipped slightly in our standings and it may have something to do with the lackluster form of James Rodríguez, who still has the keys to Los Cafeteros‘ attack. He joined MLS side Minnesota United in February on a short-term deal to get some competitive minutes and U.S. experience, but had endured a slow start until two assists this past weekend in a 2-2 draw with Austin FC.

Luis Díaz (26 goals, 17 assists in all competitions) has had a superb year with Bayern and will provide plenty of threat from the left wing, while 37-year-old goalkeeper David Ospina is still holding it down between the posts, having played all nine games for Colombia at their past two World Cup appearances. They’ll need every ounce of physicality and veteran savvy to have a deep run this time out, and our voters agree.

13. SENEGAL

– FIFA Rank as of April 1: 14
– Group I games: vs. France (June 16, New York/New Jersey); vs. Norway (June 22, New York/New Jersey); vs. Iraq (June 26, Toronto)

The Lions of Teranga are going to be a tough opponent for anyone if they can align their rock-solid defense (two goals conceded in seven games at the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations) with the trickery and dynamism of Sadio Mané, Nicolas Jackson and Iliman Ndiaye at the other end.

The big question mark is around the midfield, which is clearly a work in progress given injuries and form concerns up and down the depth chart. Lucky for them, manager Pape Thiaw knows this squad well and should be able to meet the moment.

14. CROATIA

– FIFA Rank as of April 1: 11
– Group H games: vs. England (June 17, Dallas); vs. Panama (June 23, Toronto); vs. Ghana (June 27, Philadelphia)

Yes, 40-year-old midfield general Luka Modric is still playing (and excelling) in a top European league, after swapping Real Madrid for AC Milan. Croatia have made every World Cup since 2014 and many of those who made the squads for those campaigns are still in the XI today; Ivan Perisic can still be found speeding up and down the flank, while Andrej Kramaric is likely to serve as a bruising target man.

How well the next generation can impact alongside them — defender Josko Gvardiol should make the squad despite injuries at Man City — will determine whether Croatia can escape a tricky group. That said, we’ve been saying that for years and they finished second in 2018 and third in 2022. Why would you bet against them?

15. JAPAN

– FIFA Rank as of April 1: 18
– Group F games: vs. Netherlands (June 14, Dallas); vs. Tunisia (June 20, Monterrey); vs. Sweden (June 25, Dallas)

Japan are again No. 15 in our Power Rankings, but confidence is waning considering key injuries to midfielders Wataru Endo and Takumi Minamino, their most visible players with the most big-game — and big-league — experience. Japan’s defense is also looking shaky given fitness concerns, but Daichi Kamada, Takefusa Kubo and Kaoru Mitoma will cover every square inch of grass in a bid to keep alive hopes of a deep run.