Taylor Bowley, an economist at the Bank of America Institute, also flagged this pattern in a March 3 note, writing that “the median pay raise associated with a job change has moderated for both men and women, with January’s level measuring less than half that of the 2019 average.”

“Looking ahead, if ‘low-hire, low-fire’ continues to characterize the labor market, the job‑change premium could compress further, limiting the extent to which workers can secure meaningful pay bumps by switching roles,” Bowley wrote.

Read more: Can you get a mortgage without a job? Yes — here’s how.

Jasmine Escalera, a career expert at MyPerfectResume, said that an October survey by the employment assistance platform found 65% of workers planned not to look for a new job in 2026.

The question is whether that’s “because they’re satisfied, or is it because they’re terrified?” Escalera said. Signs point to the latter, at least for some.

“We’re seeing that people take a long time to find jobs,” Escalera said. “And it isn’t about qualifications or skillsets — it’s about the competition in the market. For the job-seekers, this is really sad, actually.”

Indeed, long-term unemployment is creeping up, with a quarter of out-of-work Americans unemployed for 27 weeks or longer as of February. Anyone watching that trend who still has a job — no matter how bad it is — might be a bit skittish about jumping ship.

Lauren Thomas, an economist at Deel, a human resources company, said that seems particularly true for workers under 24, who in 2024 had the highest rate of job-hopping. Now, she said, they’re typically staying where they are and have experienced the sharpest drop in job-switching among other age groups.

Their anxiety isn’t without reason. Just in New York City, long a place where young job-seekers flock, entry-level postings plummeted more than 37% between 2022 and 2024, according to a recent report from the Center for an Urban Future. If you’re early in your career, looking for a new job might force you into the most troubled job market in years.

“There’s good reason for people to quit their jobs, whether it’s to move to a position with better opportunity, or better pay, or to change sectors, or to move to a new town,” Ullrich said. “When the churn is taken out of the labor market, and layoff rates are low — which they are — what happens is you don’t have opportunities for new people to enter.”

Emma Ockerman is a reporter covering the economy and labor for Yahoo Finance. You can reach her at emma.ockerman@yahooinc.com.

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