The Boeing 737 MAX 10 appears to finally be on the brink of securing certification. Boeing earlier in April disclosed that the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) had authorized Type Inspection Authorization 2 for the narrowbody aircraft in its first quarter update. On the surface, this left the manufacturer with just one final stage of the certification process to complete before getting on with filling the first with some 1,400-plus orders it has already racked up for the MAX 10.

But that by no means indicates the work is complete. In fact, the devil is in the details for Boeing engineers at this point, and getting the aircraft operationally ready as planned for 2026 will still require a massive effort. So, with airlines waiting in the wings for the hugely popular, but thus-far delayed, MAX 10, what does Boeing still have left to do?

System Safety Assessments

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A large part of aircraft certification involves conducting system safety assessments (SSAs). While test pilots make flights that are usually fairly well covered, putting aircraft through the extremes in practice, engineers quietly get on with assessing theoretical scenarios that, however unlikely, couldhave to be addressed by aircrew one day.

Per Boeing, these behind-the-scenes assessments “have to document all the ways that a system might fail and prove that the backup system would hold up in those scenarios”. Such scenarios essentially cover anything that can be anticipated in advance, from everyday risks to extremely rare hazards, and will stretch to situations never even encountered over the 60-year history of the 737 family in this case.

“If it’s theoretically possible, it’s something we have to explore,” Boeing engineer Nathan Bement explained.

So for the MAX 10, having cooked up scenarios that might be as unlikely as happening once in a billion flight hours, engineers will then have to assess each tiny detail of how its systems and flight crew might react.

Boeing 737 MAX 10 Still Requires 31 SSAs

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From the outside, it is difficult to gauge how much work is actually needed on these SSAs for the MAX 10 to be certified this year and then rolled out to airlines next, as planned. We know that 31 SSAs still need to be submitted before regulatory approval is granted. Boeing has noted these include analysis of the “systems controlling the hydraulics and engines, to the ones managing the flight controls and brakes.”

However, the requirements behind each SSA appear to house an almost incomprehensible amount of work. Though each might cover just one part of the aircraft, the documentation that emerges from a single SSA could span hundreds, thousands, or even tens of thousands of pages. This is because every question that can be thought of must be asked about what might happen in the event of a failure.

Boeing itself offers examples of such queries, such as, “is every component in the system reliable? What is the probability a component sends wrong information? What if the wires connecting the components fail? If one system fails, could it lead to failure in other systems? If a system fails, how will the pilots react? What will they do with erroneous data?”

New Systems On The MAX 10

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Boeing’s MAX program faces particularly strong scrutiny from regulators on the back of two accidents involving the 737 MAX 8 in 2018 and 2019, respectively. Under similar circumstances, both crashed due to an incorrect sensor reading that wrongly activated the aircraft’s new Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System (MCAS). This left each aircraft in an uncontrollable nosedive, ultimately resulting in the deaths of 346 people.

Among a string of conclusions made in the wake of the two fatal incidents was that the MAX 8’s design and testing processes had been rushed. In light of the crashes, Boeing has found itself at the center of intense scrutiny from the public and regulators. Perhaps more specifically, its safety procedures have drawn eyes.

Given their relationship with the MAX 8, the MAX 10 and MAX 7, its short-fuselage counterpart, had faced uncertainty following the crashes. Rather than axing the two, as looked to be on the cards for a time, Boeing agreed to revisions and upgrades. For the larger variant, this meant “significantly” updating SSAs for key systems, including the Stall Management Yaw Damper (SMYD), which alerts pilots to an impending loss of lift. In the words of lead stall management engineer Levi Luttrell, the result was a “brand new, from-scratch system safety analysis and comprehensive evaluation using Boeing’s latest safety processes.”

The Boeing 737 MAX 10 Itself

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Boeing, having flagged risks around earnings and the option to convert orders to existing MAX 8 and Boeing 737 MAX 9 variants previously, might not have been blamed for toying with the idea of scrapping efforts to get the two successors off the ground a few years ago. Indeed, the crashes severely hampered trust and its reputation, becoming a key factor behind delays to both, alongside its latest widebody, the Boeing 777X.

The MAX 10 itself was originally meant to enter service in 2020, having been launched in 2017. It then made its first test flight in 2021, performing “beautifully,” per chief pilot Captain Jennifer Henderson. It transpired this meant little, however, with separate groundings of both the MAX 8 and then the MAX 9 on the back of another incident in 2024 providing repeated hurdles for Boeing. Now, Boeing is juggling with a commercial release date a decade after the MAX 10 was first unveiled, and no guarantee that certification will come as currently planned.

Why Boeing opted to weather the storm and press on with the MAX 10 program as originally intended comes down to several factors. One is that it is the closest alternative Boeing has to the game-changing long-range Airbus A321XLR in terms of size and capacity. Though its range of 3,100 nautical miles (5,740 km) is trumped by the 4,698 nautical miles (8,700 km) of Airbus option in this case, the MAX 10 stands as a key competitor to other family variants within the French manufacturer’s portfolio. As such, the MAX 10 has been widely popular among carriers.

MAX 10 Has Been A Popular Choice

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As touched on above, Boeing has racked up in excess of 1,400 orders for the MAX 10. Specifically, according to ch-aviation, the figure sat at 1,431 earlier in April. Panama’s Copa Airlines then, most recently, placed a $13.5 billion order for 60 aircraft from the MAX family, kept its options open on which variants they might be, and left a decision between the MAX 8, MAX 9, and MAX 10 until closer to delivery.

All this goes to say, the MAX 10 has been incredibly popular so far, despite Boeing’s own issues, and orders remain on the rise as regulatory approval appears to inch closer. For comparison, ch-aviation listed orders for its smaller counterpart, the MAX 7, at 289 earlier this month. Some 257 of these had come from Southwest Airlines, 28 were unassigned, and the remainder were accounted for by Ruili Airlines and SkyUp Airlines.

Though perhaps still impressive, the disparity in the number of orders between the two differing variants offers a glimpse into just how strong the appetite for the MAX 10 has been. Several of Boeing’s largest customers for the MAX 10 have ordered upwards of 100 models each, including Alaska Airlines, American Airlines, Delta Air Lines, Pegasus Airlines, Ryanair, and United Airlines.

Light At The End Of The Tunnel?

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Needless to say, the queue of those waiting to get their hands on the MAX 10 and the MAX 7 is long. Confirmation most recently from Boeing that deliveries would begin in 2027, despite certification still being on course for this year, may well have come as a kick in the teeth for a number of airline executives then. That said, Boeing’s engineers have themselves pointed to “the light at the end of the tunnel,” as “many of the key SSAs are maturing and getting closer to final approval”.

How many of these assessments and the hundreds or thousands of pages of associated documents remain needing to be filled in before the green light comes is, unfortunately, unclear. Approval for type inspection testing covering the likes of autothrottle, autopilot, enhanced angle-of-attack, and engine anti-ice solutions is a step in the right direction, though, so it is all eyes on Boeing and any word on what comes next.