Warsh offered forward guidance after all, former Fed vice chair says


Markets knew they weren’t going to get an answer to what the Federal Reserve would do next — so-called forward guidance — when the central bank’s chairman, Kevin Warsh, spoke on Friday morning. The biggest question looming over Warsh’s highly anticipated speech was whether he would clarify how the Fed will respond to rising inflation.

On that, he delivered, former Fed vice chairman Alan Blinder, now a professor of economics at Princeton University, said in an interview with Yahoo Finance.

Warsh painted a robust picture of the US economy, noting that economic growth appears to have strengthened, while characterizing the labor market as stable at full employment. He underscored that inflation remains too high and that while this summer’s inflation readings were better than expected, they “do not tell me that underlying trends have meaningfully improved.”

“I would call that forward guidance,” Blinder said. “He doesn’t call it forward guidance … That sounded to me like somebody who thought interest rates should go up, right?”

Read more: Live updates and reaction to Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech

Blinder thinks a September rate hike is on the table, saying Warsh sounded “like a man who was rationalizing raising interest rates.”

“My guess is they’ll be raising rates in September, just a quarter of a point, and [then] they’ll wait,” he said.

Traders appear to agree. Odds of a September rate hike rose to nearly 60% following Warsh’s speech, up from 35% on Thursday.

“Markets almost always want more clarity than policymakers can deliver,” Blinder added. “There’s a classic mismatch between the concreteness, I’ll call it, that the markets are constantly craving. I think it’s the case that Kevin Warsh wants to be a little less open than, say, [former Fed Chair] Jay Powell.”

In his speech, Warsh laid out the data he’s monitoring to set policy and reaffirmed that the Personal Consumption Expenditures index (PCE) is the Fed’s preferred yardstick for inflation, after suggesting it may not be in July.

The Fed chairman cited several data points in his Jackson Hole speech.
Yahoo Finance

He said he is watching changes in the growth rates of corporate earnings and capital spending, as well as the follow-on effects on asset prices, business confidence, consumer incomes, and spending.

Before their mid-September meeting, Fed officials will receive another Consumer Price Index reading, as well as data on wholesale prices, which can be used to reverse-engineer the calculation of their preferred PCE measure.

Blinder posited that Warsh thinks forward guidance means telling the public how much the Fed would raise rates in a certain time frame.



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