There is a reason for the confidence. Markets have developed a reflex over the past decades to fade every geopolitical event, and it has been right almost every time, according to Maxence Visseau, founder of Arkevium, an investment firm specializing in macro trading strategies. When Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, global stocks settled down just 0.6% on the day and the S&P 500 gained 1.5%. The two notable exceptions — 1973 and 1990 — both involved a sustained oil supply disruption.