Iranian officials have said the MOU would lead to them getting access to tens of billions of dollars of frozen funds held in places such as Qatar. The draft seen by Bloomberg says the US undertakes that those funds “will be released and made fully available” without setting a timeline.

Iran has been under US sanctions since the 1979 revolution that overthrew the shah. Approximately $12 billion in Iranian funds were frozen at that time, according to an analysis by the Atlantic Council. Subsequent decades saw additional US sanctions as well as sanctions from other countries, especially during the run-up to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action on Iran’s nuclear program, which was implemented in 2015.

Estimates of the total amount of Iranian government assets sitting in accounts globally vary widely, ranging from $24 billion to upward of $100 billion. In 2023, the Biden administration had planned to make $6 billion of Iranian oil revenue available to Iran via an account for humanitarian aid managed by Qatar but that plan was suspended following the Oct. 7, 2023 attacks on Israel by Hamas.

Oil prices have fallen sharply since Trump said late last week an agreement was imminent. Brent crude edged higher early Wednesday after sliding about 5% to end below $79 in the previous session.

Lower demand in China, as well as the US and other nations running down their emergency petroleum stockpiles, have also helped lower prices. Those reserves will likely need to be rebuilt once the Hormuz strait is open again.

Many European governments, energy investors and shipping companies have reservations about how fast the strait — through which a significant portion of the world’s supplies of oil, liquefied natural gas and aluminum normally flow — can be returned to prewar conditions.

Beyond the potential need to clear the waterway, there’s a longer-run question of whether Iran will allow free passage.

Tehran has signaled it will charge vessels navigation fees after the 60-day negotiating period under the new US-Iran talks. Trump said Tuesday at his meeting with the UAE leader that the strait would be “permanently” open toll-free. A day earlier, a senior US official told reporters that the strait’s status beyond the 60-day negotiating period would be up for discussion.

Vance defended the deal on Monday, saying it would be built around a verification system to ensure Iran follows through on its pledges. Senate Republicans said they’re pressing the Trump administration for details and signaled Congress will ultimately vote on the final agreement.

Neither the US nor Iran is hiding its distrust of the other. The White House says Trump won’t hesitate to return to strikes if he thinks Tehran’s leaders aren’t abiding by the deal’s terms. Iranian officials have warned that the US twice launched attacks on the country during the past year while negotiations were underway.

Trump’s frustration with the war he initiated nearly four months ago has been increasingly visible and his focus has often drifted elsewhere, including to his renovation projects in Washington and festivities surrounding the 250th anniversary of US independence. The president, who turned 80 on Sunday, looked tired when he arrived at the G-7 summit on Monday. He traveled only after attending a mixed martial arts event at the White House that ended well after midnight in the US.

Israel’s war against Iran-backed Hezbollah militants in Lebanon is another potential spoiler to a successful deal. The MOU is likely to state there must be a ceasefire on “all fronts,” including Lebanon.

Israeli politicians have called for continuing the fight against Hezbollah, which has fired missiles and drones into Israel in support of Iran.

–With assistance from Paul Wallace, John Bowker, Steven T. Dennis, John Harney, Eltaf Najafizada and Jon Herskovitz.

(Updates with sanctions timeline, starting in 10th paragraph.)

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