Americans are taking a very dim view of President Trump’s trade wars, with clear majorities telling pollsters they do not support the president’s tariffs and they believe their costs are being driven up as a result.

The contrast with Canadians’ views is stark. North of the border, Canadians appear not just OK with tit-for-tat tariffs, they say they are ready to endure economic pain to make a point.

“Americans have zero interest in picking a fight with Canada,” Eurasia Group founder Ian Bremmer summed up one side, while former Trump Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross noted that in the north, “Canadians have adopted a very negative attitude toward the US in general.” 

The divergent public moods could be a factor that could help Canada in the months ahead, even though the impact of a trade war would be greater on its smaller economy.

About 58.7% of Americans disapprove of Trump’s approach to trade and tariffs, according to the Silver Bulletin, which has analyzed over 20 polls this summer that asked Americans their views on the topic. Just 34.5% approve. 

That’s a jump of over 18 percentage points since the beginning of Trump’s second term, in just one of the economic issues pulling Trump’s approval rating to second-term lows.

Meanwhile, the Trump administration has sent signals that new trade tensions with China could be just around the corner, with potential plans for a new 7.5% tariffs on China under consideration around the issue of overcapacity ahead of a late September meeting planned between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Those new tariffs would come on top of what, according to the Yale Budget Lab, is already a 26% effective statutory tariff rate on China.

That could kick off “the next wave” of tariff actions, Raymond James wrote this past week, marking “the next chapter in President Trump’s push to reinstitute and expand on the tariffs struck down by the Supreme Court.”

“Despite midterm and inflation concerns, and growing voter skepticism around tariffs and affordability, we continue to believe the U.S. has not yet reached ‘peak tariff.'” wrote managing director of Washington policy Edward Mills and two colleagues.

Energized Canadians and dour Americans

The differing public moods come as trade tensions between the US and Canada appear to be heading ever upwards. 

Trump on Thursday signed an order to rename Lake Ontario as ‘Lake America’ while some in Trump’s administration even toyed with the idea of cutting off trade in certain goods to Canada entirely, Semafor reported.

That escalation comes as Trump’s trade approval ratings continue to decline. 

A YouGov survey earlier this month found a large gap, with 64% of Americans registering disapproval of the way Trump is handling the tariff issue and just 30% saying the opposite.

Another recent survey from The Argument, a left-leaning magazine, additionally asked Americans about their view of the effects of tariffs. 62% of respondents said tariffs are having a negative effect on the cost of living.

Canadians, by contrast, seem ready to fight. An Angus Reid Institute poll found that 76% of Canadians say their government “did the right thing” by walking away from the talks, with support at majority levels in every province.

62% of Canadians also said that counter-tariffs in response were “about right under the circumstances.”

The dour public mood among Americans could be amplified by the coming midterm elections.

A handful of states central to Republican hopes in November may be in for outsized impacts from tariffs. Border states like Maine and Michigan have important Senate races underway, while agriculture-heavy states like Iowa and North Carolina could see Canadian markets dry up for their crops.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has promised to keep up the larger fight as long as needed. He told Canadians in the immediate aftermath of the talks breaking down, “You’re at war when you’re attacked, and we got attacked.”

Ben Werschkul is a Washington correspondent for Yahoo Finance.

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