Tomatoes are expensive right now any way you slice them.

Tomato prices rose 45.2 per cent year-over-year in May, according to new inflation numbers released Monday by Statistics Canada. That’s by far the highest price increase since May last year for any grocery item measured in the Consumer Price Index, beating usual suspects coffee and beef by leaps and bounds.

Statistics Canada explains this jump is due to supply contractions in Mexico, “stemming from poor weather and a reduction in planted acreage following the implementation of U.S. tariffs.”

In April, when tomato prices jumped 40 per cent in the U.S., people there pointed to U.S. President Donald Trump’s policies for the price surge, alongside crop yields and other issues.

But with Canadian data now available for May, it appears Canada’s tomato inflation has trumped theirs. In May, U.S. tomato prices dropped 8.5 per cent from April, increasing 32 per cent year-over-year.

In Canada, we’re seeing a continuation of the same issues — like yield problems in Mexico, tariffs and transportation costs — that plagued tomato prices earlier this spring, Michael von Massow, a food agriculture professor at Ontario’s University of Guelph, told CBC News.

Canadians are creatures of habit, and tomato demand climbs in the summer as more people add them to salads and other barbeque fare, Michael von Massow, a food agriculture professor at Ontario’s University of Guelph, told CBC News.

“We’re not always quick to adapt, but I expect that we’ll see some burgers without tomatoes and we’ll see salads without tomato and … maybe fewer bacon, lettuce and tomato sandwiches,” von Massow said.

What happened to tomatoes?

Tomatoes are caught in the crossfire of weather, tariffs and war. A freeze in Florida and rain in Mexico reduced yields, and most of Canada’s winter and spring tomatoes come from those regions.

And while the U.S. tariffs on Mexican tomatoes didn’t directly affect Canadian prices, industry news site The Packer says that Mexican growers reduced their plantings as a result, which further squeezed supply.

Finally, higher diesel and fertilizer costs are feeding through the supply chain as a result of the war in Iran, von Massow said. Transportation costs have a disproportionate effect on fresh produce prices because they’re perishable, he added.

All told, fresh tomatoes were an average $6.18 per kilogram in April, up $1.49 from a year earlier, according to the most recent Statistics Canada average monthly retail data.

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Canada’s inflation rate has risen to 3.2 per cent in May, compared to 2.8 per cent in April, mainly due to the Middle East war driving up the cost of gasoline. The price of vegetables is also up nine per cent compared to last year; tomatoes jumped up 45 per cent due to supply issues.

As of June 21, the average price in Canadian grocery stores was more like $6.61 per kilogram, according to grocerypulse.ca data collected for Dalhousie University’s Agri‑Food Analytics Lab in Halifax.

But already, that’s a 0.3 per cent drop from the monthly prices his lab saw at the end of May, said Sylvain Charlebois, the lab’s director, which suggests we’ve already hit the peak.

“It’s a slight drop over the past 30 days, but it is a drop nonetheless,” Charlebois told CBC News. “I think the worst is over for tomatoes.”

Still, he noted, they’re expensive compared to previous years.

A quick search on various grocery store websites Monday showed beefsteak tomatoes at $7.71 per kilogram at a Toronto Loblaws, $6.59 per kilogram at a St. John’s Sobeys, and large hothouse tomatoes at $9.90 per kilogram at a Save On Foods in Calgary.

How to save? Eat seasonally

Guelph’s von Massow says he also believes relief is in sight, helped by the fact that Canadian field tomato production should start in six to eight weeks.

But in the meantime, he suggests anyone trying to save on their grocery bill try to think about what’s seasonal. Produce prices will go down over the next several months as Canadian production kicks in, he added.

Asparagus, for instance, is abundant and inexpensive right now. Strawberries are coming. Radishes are here, von Massow said, which he noted are “awesome on a salad.”

“Maybe replace tomato with radish and take advantage of these seasonal vegetables. It’s a great way to buffer yourself against some of these price increases.”