Every August, there’s a point when I mentally check out of summer. The linen dresses I couldn’t get enough of in June suddenly feel a little tired, sandals have lost their appeal, and I find myself thinking almost exclusively about what I’ll wear once the temperature finally drops. Autumn fashion has that effect on me. Maybe it’s the return of actual layering or the promise of a really great coat, but no season makes me want to shop quite like this one.

This year, though, I’m less interested in the broad-stroke trends we’ve been talking about since the autumn/winter collections first came down the runways. I already know the overarching mood of the season. What I want to know now is far more specific: Which exact pieces are about to become the pieces?

You know the ones. They’re not necessarily the loudest thing on the runway, nor are they attached to the biggest logo. Instead, they start quietly appearing in the wardrobes of the people whose style I pay closest attention to—the editors, buyers, stylists, and industry insiders who somehow manage to get six months ahead of everyone else.