The Cracked Crystal Ball II: Conservative Desperation?


 So, the last week have been quite a whirlwind of activity from conservative circles in Canada, and much of it looks concerningly desperate:

1. MP Dean Allison is creating a “panel” to “investigate vaccine injuries”

2. Preston Manning has been dragged out from retirement to bolster Alberta separatist grievances

3. This morning, Poilievre held a press conference (on a Sunday?) 

My first reaction when Poilievre’s presser was announced was “is he resigning?”, of course when I jumped into the stream, it was apparent that this was little more than an attempt to pressure the Canadian government to come to an agreement with Trump.  The total of what Poilievre had to say couldn’t have been very significant, because there were no urgently posted stories on any major news sites.   

Relitigating the COVID vaccine story is the first clue as to how desperate the conservatives are becoming for relevance.  The real story around “Adverse Events Following Immunization (AEFI)” appears to be that most such “events” are fairly minor (headaches, chills), and a handful of cases of potentially more serious events.  Of course, we have to be aware that just because an adverse event follows immunization that does not show causality.  

Politically, I can see how some – especially among the same population that thought the Convoy was a good thing – would see gains from dusting off a non-issue to get people riled up again and to whine about “government overreach”.  

Dragging Preston Manning out from his undoubtedly comfortable retirement is another matter.  Manning has long been a separatist, much of his rhetoric even when he was leader of the Reform Party was really a rehash of long held grievances among Alberta separatists.  Bringing him out to lend some legitimacy to separatist grievances as the separatist movement continues to show Albertans how ugly they really are (with one of their leading lights spouting some particularly ugly racism the other night) is … interesting. 

Combined with Poilievre’s sinking fortunes, one might be inclined to suspect that there is a concerted effort going on to shore up support within the CPC base, and possibly drag in some “new/old” support that has since drifted over to the LPC.  The apparent strategy is to apply pressure on the Carney-led LPC government on trade issues, while concurrently playing up what used to be the “Western Alienation” card (Manning’s favourite whine in the 90s) in an effort to draw support away from Carney.  

To be clear, it is no secret that conservative politics coordinates at all levels, and the goal has long been to get a “hat trick” of a majority of Premiers who are conservative-aligned along with a federal government controlled by the CPC.  This is not new.  When we see the conservatives pulling “their old grey ones” out of the closet to lend “legitimacy” to something, it’s always in the aid of that larger goal.  



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