The 2026 Australian Open women’s semifinals take place on Thursday morning, as Aryna Sabalenka faces Elina Svitolina at 3:30 a.m. ET, followed by Elena Rybakina vs. Jessica Pegula. Sabalenka is in the Australian Open semifinals for the fourth year in a row, improving to 10-0 so far this season. She has reached at least the semifinals in 12 of her last 14 tournaments and is 3-0 in the Australian Open semis. SportsLine’s tennis expert Jose Onorato is backing Sabalenka to cover the spread as a 4.5-game favorite against Svitolina.   

Onorato has also revealed his best bet for Pegula vs. Rybakina in the second semifinal. Before locking in your Australian Open picks for the first Grand Slam of the season, be sure to check out the top tennis betting picks from Onorato.

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Onorato has gone 168-106-8 (+107.12 units) on his best bets since 2022. He correctly called Jannik Sinner in the 2025 Australian Open (+160), Carlos Alcaraz (+130) in the 2025 French Open and Sinner again at 2025 Wimbledon (+180). He also called Coco Gauff (+700) in the 2025 French Open and Iga Swiatek (+1200) at 2025 Wimbledon. Anybody following his tennis betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.

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Australian Open women’s semifinal best bets:

• Sabalenka -4.5 games vs. Svitolina (-110) 
• Over 21.5 games in Rybakina vs. Pegula (-120) 

Sabalenka -4.5 games vs. Svitolina (-110)

“Sabalenka has been ruthless in Melbourne, not dropping a set and overwhelming opponents with her serve and baseline power,” Onorato said. “She dismantled Iva Jovic with ease and continues to dictate points from the first strike. Svitolina deserves credit for her straight-sets win over Gauff, but this matchup is a different problem. Sabalenka has won four of their last five meetings, most of them comfortably, and her ability to break early and protect serve puts constant scoreboard pressure on Svitolina. If Aryna keeps the first serve under control, this should open up quickly and stay within a straight-sets margin.”

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Over 21.5 games in Rybakina vs. Pegula (-120)

“Rybakina showed her ceiling again by flattening Swiatek in the quarterfinals, using her serve and weight of shot to take control early,” Onorato said. “Pegula reached her first Australian Open semifinal by staying composed and returning well, and that steadiness gives her a path to keep sets competitive. Their head-to-head is tied, and when these two meet, sets tend to stretch. Even if Rybakina is the more dangerous player overall, Pegula has enough consistency to force long games or a tiebreak, making the over the safer angle.”

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