In the chaotic few hours after the Nationals leader, David Littleproud, blew up the Coalition, one thing appeared clear to many Liberal MPs.

Sussan Ley’s leadership of the Liberal party was all but over.

Already suffering from historically bad opinion poll numbers, the view among colleagues was that a second Coalition rupture in eights months made Ley’s position, to quote one MP, “unsalvageable”.

The perspective was expressed most forcefully by conservatives who are predisposed to criticise Ley, but not exclusively. Even some of her supporters admitted the clocking was ticking.

Almost a week on from the dramatic split, speculation is rife that Ley will be challenged – and defeated – by either Angus Taylor or Andrew Hastie in a leadership spill as early as next week.

But there are two factors working in Ley’s favour, which could at least buy time, if not avert what many still view as the inevitable outcome.

The first is that no Liberal MPs – aside from her harshest internal critics – disagree with the decision to accept the resignation of the three Nationals senators who crossed the floor on Labor’s hate speech laws, staring down Littleproud’s threat that it would effectively end the Coalition.

Ley’s decision was endorsed by the Liberal leadership team, which includes Taylor and fellow top conservatives Michaelia Cash, James Paterson and Jonno Duniam.

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Some Liberals feel uneasy about the rushed process that led to supporting Labor’s hate speech laws. But the majority of the party room believed it was justified to outlaw neo-Nazi organisations and Islamic group Hizb ut-Tahrir.

Most of Ley’s colleagues blame Littleproud for the ensuing crisis and none want to reward the behaviour by ceding to his not-so-subtle ultimatum that the Liberals replace their leader in order to reunite the Coalition.

To Ley’s supporters, the events of the past week do not amount to a sackable offence.

But the campaign to overthrow the party’s first female leader is not about a split over hate speech or even the management of the relationship with the Nationals.

Ley and her allies know this.

These were merely the pretext to launch a coup that was months in the planning, born out of hostilities that have lingered since Ley narrowly defeated Taylor in the post-election leadership ballot.

At the end of last year, prior to the Bondi terror attack, conservative MPs were discussing plans to move on Ley if the Coalition’s dire polling wasn’t improving around the time of the federal budget in May – roughly 12 months into her tenure.

But before any formal challenge would be launched, MPs agreed that Taylor and Hastie first needed to resolve which of them would run as the right faction’s candidate against the moderate-aligned Ley.

That question is yet to be resolved: the second factor buying Ley time.

The shadow leadership campaign run playing out in the media has exposed a split in the conservative faction – including on generational lines – that threatens to derail the coup.

Hastie’s backers are adamant the formal soldier has the faction’s support and want the older Taylor to step aside.

Liberal sources said Taylor, the right’s most senior member, would not give up the chance to run and reportedly offered Hastie the deputy position as a compromise, which was refused.

Ley’s supporters are confident the two factors combined – the Taylor/Hastie impasse and widespread reluctance to reward the Nationals’ belligerence – means the challenge won’t materialise.

“Angus has the better claim (to be the right’s contender). Hastie has the numbers. And Sussan has the support of the party room,” one Liberal powerbroker said.

“It is a genuine stalemate.”

Dan Jervis-Bardy is Guardian Australia’s chief political correspondent