Wall Street has gone quiet. The calendar says that’s about to change.

The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) fell to 14.13 on Friday, its lowest level of 2026. That’s a long way from the spring, when volatility briefly exploded higher with Iran war headlines before spending the summer grinding back down.

That calm tends to fade right around now.

The VIX has historically started climbing around this time of year. Its median level since 1990 sits around 16.5 in late August, rises toward 18 by mid-September, and reaches roughly 19 in early October.

That doesn’t mean stocks are destined to fall.

The VIX measures the 30-day volatility implied by S&P 500 options, or roughly how much movement options traders are pricing into the market. It says nothing about which direction the movement will take.

That distinction can get lost whenever the VIX starts rising. Stocks can rally even with elevated volatility, and they can drift lower even with subdued volatility. What changes this time of year is the range of possible outcomes. It tends to get wider.

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