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It was a tale of two weeks for yours truly.

On the one hand, I spent the day at the Semafor World Economy conference in D.C. and listened to chef and humanitarian José Andrés explain how more people will be going hungry because of war-driven inflation.

“What is happening right now in the Strait of Hormuz is directly, indirectly already affecting and will affect [food prices] even more. I’m very worried for a very bigger hunger [problem] towards the end of this year, beginning of 2027,” Andrés told me.

Depressing.

On the other hand, I watched the S&P 500 (^GSPC) climb to fresh records above 7,000… despite more people being at risk of going without food and the Middle East conflict far from resolved.

“Markets climb a wall of worry,” Great Hill chairman Tom Hayes said on Yahoo Finance’s Opening Bid. “We all know in the short term, the market is a voting machine based on emotions and headlines. We saw that 10% drawdown in the S&P 500 on that short-term basis [due to the war]. But in the intermediate to long term, it’s a weighing machine based on fundamentals. And the fundamentals are good.”

It’s wild to witness investors ignoring the real-world effects of war.

But I’m going to roll with the upbeat vibes today as we wind down the week. Even though I don’t agree with all the optimism powering stocks, far be it from me to stand in your way. The least I can do is offer some guideposts to help you in your bullish stock-picking endeavors.

Just don’t expect me to offer tips on trading Allbirds (BIRD) — that is a crap company, and what they announced this week (a pivot to AI) should be looked into by regulators.

Disclaimer: This list could be horribly outdated in a few days, given the speed of developments in the US-Iran conflict and incoming earnings reports.

But I think these rules of the road will hold true for a little while.

1. Every Big Tech earnings report must support the bullishness we heard from Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) this week on the AI front. You want to hear the word “accelerating” as opposed to “accelerated” demand for AI infrastructure.

2. Earnings calls from noteworthy tech players should signal more AI-related layoffs soon. You would be surprised how a single word from an exec signals more mass layoffs around the bend. I think stocks are pricing in a leaner corporate America over the next 18 months.

3. Stocks need to shrug off any economic data that suggests the war is causing growth to slow and inflation to pick up. The market’s move off the recent lows signals investors couldn’t care less about the war — it’s all about better days (maybe?) six months from today.

4. Oil prices (CL=F, BZ=F) can’t spike above $100 a barrel again.

5. More earnings reports like PepsiCo’s (PEP) need to happen — the report showed improved food demand later in the quarter when gas prices rose due to the war.

6. Nvidia (NVDA) has to blow past its $212 record high with ease.

7. S&P 500 earnings estimates have to continue climbing.