The deadline for NFL teams to pick up fifth-year options on first-round picks from the 2023 draft came and went without edge rusher Tyree Wilson earning that additional year on his rookie contract. Not only that, but Wilson found himself on a new squad altogether at the deadline after the Las Vegas Raiders traded him to the New Orleans Saints on Day 3 of this year’s draft. There has never been more uncertainty for the former No. 7 overall pick, who suddenly finds himself at a career crossroads.

The Raiders moved up from the seventh round to the fifth while shipping Wilson off to New Orleans. The move cut bait with a player who never delivered on high expectations across his three years in the AFC West. On the other side of the deal, the Saints acquired an affordable lottery ticket. If Wilson finally breaks through, he will fill a key need on the defensive front. If not, they can move on after this season without any financial hardship.

The delta between Wilson’s best-case and worst-case outcomes in New Orleans is immense. He could reinvent himself as a rising standout on an expiring deal, but he could also begin to flame out as nothing more than a depth piece.

Here is what might come next for Wilson in his first year with the Saints.

Best-case scenario

Sometimes, all it takes is a change of scenery. A number of recent examples exist at Wilson’s position. Take K’Lavon Chaisson, for instance. The 2020 first-round pick never amounted to much with the Jacksonville Jaguars, turned in a career year with the Raiders and parlayed it into a full-on breakout in 2025 as a key member of a New England Patriots pass rush that made a trip to the Super Bowl.

Perhaps second-year defensive coordinator Brandon Staley can get more out of Wilson than the multiple coaching staffs who oversaw the first three years of his development. His debut defense in 2025 turned out to be a strength of the Saints’ promising squad.

There is room for Wilson to step right in as a Day 1 starter on the edge. Longtime Saint Cameron Jordan remains unsigned, and because New Orleans’ only move this offseason to rebuild depth at the position was to bring in Wilson, he will be counted on to replace Jordan’s production. 

The financial implications of a breakout year would also be significant. Wilson was scheduled to earn $14.475 million in 2027 if the Saints picked up his option. Finding that kind of payday is likely a stretch even if Wilson finally delivers on his potential, but he could command something in that range rather than scrounging up a couple of million dollars with another disappointing season. The timing is ideal, as Wilson’s status as an unrestricted free agent next spring will allow him to play the market.

Better yet, Wilson could latch on with the Saints for the long term as Jordan’s replacement. They should be willing to pay up for an edge rusher next offseason if Jordan is out of the picture, and 2026 is effectively a tryout for a long-term deal for Wilson. He will have other suitors if he breaks out, but the fit would make plenty of sense if he simply re-upped with New Orleans.

Worst-case scenario

The more likely outcome is that Wilson remains a middling starter or plateaus as a career depth piece. That is possible whether or not Jordan re-signs with the Saints.

Jordan’s return would block Wilson from the starting lineup, as the 15-year veteran would instantly slot back onto the top line of the depth chart with Bryan Bresee and Chase Young in what is a three-man pass-rushing unit. As it stands, Wilson only has to battle with Vernon Broughton, who missed all but one game as a rookie due to a season-ending hip injury.

If Jordan comes back, Wilson’s ceiling will be that of a rotational player. Even if that spot in the lineup is open, though, there is no guarantee Wilson takes the job and runs with it. He never posted more than 4.5 sacks with the Raiders, and in two of three years, he graded as a sub-average run defender, per PFF.

Tyree Wilson career stats

Wilson will be a better player in 2026 than any of the prospects that were available to the Saints in the fifth round when they traded away their pick, so there is not much here for New Orleans to lose. The greater risk is for Wilson himself, as another year as a sub-five sack producer probably cements him as a second-stringer for good. There will always be demand in free agency for that kind of player, and he would find a home in 2027, but that is a disappointing result for a former top-10 pick.