A new research tool that tracks cell phone activity has found a 42% drop in visitors from Canada to big metropolitan areas in the US that is much higher than official border-crossing data, suggesting Canadians during the second Trump administration are avoiding US cities in particular.

Researchers from the University of Toronto said the tool showed a “year-over-year median decline of approximately 42% in Canadian visits to US metropolitan areas – significantly higher than official border-crossing data, which showed a roughly 25% decline”.

The economies of US border towns reliant on Canadian traffic have been slammed as their northerly neighbours think twice about travelling to the US, put off by immigration enforcement operations and border crackdowns, and anger at Donald Trump’s tariffs and his threats of making Canada “the 51st state”.

But the researchers said that their data also showed steep declines in Canadian visitors to cities, in states such as New York, New Hampshire and Vermont. It also found declines to major tourist destinations such as Las Vegas and Walt Disney World, and to winter recreation areas, including in Florida – typically a central destination for overwintering Canadians.

The researchers analyzed Canadian devices travelling to US metro areas between 1 April 2024 and 31 March 2026. As potential explanations of why the 42% figure is so much higher than border crossing estimates, they noted that cell phone data also captured freight traffic, which border crossings do not, and could also track changes in Canadians previously living in the US who left.

On the blog that accompanies the tool, the researchers said they were struck by “the marked decline in visits to large metropolitan economies”.

“High-tech and financial centers like San Francisco and Houston appear to be experiencing reductions not only in tourists but also in business-related travel, reflecting changing travel preferences due to broader economic uncertainties on both sides of the border,” they wrote.

Karen Chapple, director of the School of Cities at the University of Toronto and a co-author of the report, said one finding that popped out to her immediately was the decline in travel to Grand Rapids, Michigan, a city with “deep economic connections with Ontario because of the auto industry”.

“There used to be a lot of back and forth between the two places” for work purposes, Chapple said. Since the US imposed tariffs on some Canadian goods including vehicles, however, fewer Canadians appeared to be travelling there.

The researchers also noted that their data measured “not only Canadians crossing the border, but also Canadians living temporarily in the US, suggesting that the decrease in activity may reflect return migration to Canada”.

According to data from the Canadian government, the number of Canadian-resident return trips from the US was down 25% in 2025, while the number of trips to Canada by US residents also decreased, albeit by 7.5%.