The American League Championship Series has been back and forth, with the Cleveland Guardians and Tampa Bay Rays alternating wins ahead of Sunday’s Game 5. Cleveland prevailed in Games 1 and 3, with Tampa winning Games 2 and 4 as they enter Game 5 with the series tied 2-2. Parker Messick (12-9, 2.56 ERA) will take the mound for Cleveland, countered by Drew Rasmussen (16-5, 2.67 ERA) of Tampa. Game 6 will take place in Tampa on Monday and a Game 7, if needed, will be held in Sunday, also in Tampa. Visit our Kalshi promo code review and get a $55 trading bonus after $25+ in trades with the Kalshi promo code CBSSPORTS55:

First pitch for Game 5 from Progressive Field in Cleveland is set for 5:08 p.m. ET. The Rays are 7-3 in the regular and postseason versus the Guardians this year. Tampa Bay is a -131 favorite on the money line (risk $131 to win $100), while Cleveland is at +109 in the latest Guardians vs. Rays odds. The over/under is 6.5. Before making any Rays vs. Guardians picks, be sure to see the Rays vs. Guardians predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model. 

SportsLine’s model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times and entered the 2026 ALCS on a 31-25 run on all top-rated MLB money-line picks at betting sites, returning more than $900 for $100 players. Anyone following its picks at MLB betting sites could have seen strong returns.  

Now, the model has set its sights on Rays vs. Guardians and just locked in its picks and MLB predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several MLB odds and betting lines for Guardians vs. Rays:

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Top Rays vs. Guardians predictions 

After 10,000 simulations of Guardians vs. Rays, the model is going Over 6.5 combined runs for over/under betting. The Over connected in last night’s contest and also in Game 1. It’s important to note that Game 5 has a 4 p.m. local first pitch after most of this series’ games took place at night. Tampa’s pitchers were a little more giving in day games this year, posting a 3.88 ERA in those contests, compared to a 3.61 ERA in night starts.

Additionally, Rasmussen’s starts have heavily leaned over, as the Over sports a 19-12-1 across his starts this year. As for Messick, he’s not quite as dominant at Progressive Field as on the road as he has a 2.90 ERA in home starts compared to a 2.22 mark on the road. The model forecasts the teams to combine for 7.4 runs, as the Over hits in 58% of simulations. Get the Rays vs. Guardians money-line pick at SportsLine.

How to make Rays vs. Guardians picks

After simulating every pitch of Rays vs. Guardians 10,000 times, the model also says one side of the money line has all the value. You can get that pick at SportsLine. 

So who wins Guardians vs. Rays, and which side of the money line has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its MLB picks, and find out.