There is an obvious problem with those who have stars in their eyes. Blinded by the light, they fail to see the darkness surrounding those stars. This seems an apt metaphor for those who view Mark Carney and his Liberal government in an unqualified way, assuming everything they do to build Canada’s bulwarks against American assaults on our economy and our sovereignty is good and beyond criticism.

Such a surrender of critical-thinking skills is not in the national interest, and it certainly does a massive disservice to climate-change mitigation efforts. Consider, for example, the following:

The federal government and Alberta will try to clear the way for construction of a major new oil pipeline to the Pacific coast by September 2027, as part of a new deal that showcases Prime Minister Mark Carney’s softer approach to fossil fuel emissions in a bid to boost economic development. 

Friday’s “implementation deal” follows the memorandum of understanding signed last November that scrapped, suspended and watered down major national climate policies created under Carney’s predecessor, Justin Trudeau.

Now, there will be some who contend Carney is just playing a game with Danielle Smith, who is quite freely wielding the separation cudgel against the feds, and that the prospect of building another pipeline is indeed remote.  However, as always, the devil is in the details, which seem a bit opaque at this point, save for this crucial point:

[W]hile Carney has repeatedly stressed that his government won’t support the pipeline unless a group of major oilsands companies builds their long-discussed “Pathways” carbon capture project, Friday’s deal includes no time frame for when that development would need to start construction. 

Instead, it outlines how Pathways would need to result in annual emissions reductions of six megatonnes from the sector by 2035, and another 10 megatonnes per year by 2045. 

Now, the Pathways project, like other technologies, seems more a dream concept than a reality at this point. I asked ChatGPT about its status, and this is what I learned:

The short version: the Pathways carbon sequestration project is still alive, but not yet under construction at full scale and remains politically and financially unresolved.

The project — led by the oil sands consortium now operating as the Oil Sands Alliance (formerly Pathways Alliance) — is a proposed carbon capture and storage (CCS) network in northern Alberta. It would capture CO₂ from more than 20 oil sands facilities and send it via a long pipeline to underground storage near Cold Lake.

Note that it is not yet under construction, and remains financially unresolved. In other words, it doesn’t really exist, and it likely never will be without massive taxpayer support.

The project is estimated at roughly C$16.5 billion, and oil sands companies have long argued they need stronger government incentives to make the economics work. Ottawa has offered a federal CCS investment tax credit, while Alberta has discussed provincial support, but negotiations over cost-sharing and carbon pricing have dragged on.

As you also might already be aware, a project of the Pathways scale would require massive amounts of energy, which would seem to be at odds for a technology touted as a means of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. 

The key issue is the “energy penalty” of carbon capture: capturing CO₂ takes energy because you have to separate dilute CO₂ from exhaust gases, regenerate solvents, compress the gas, and pump it underground.

A rough rule of thumb for post-combustion carbon capture in heavy industry/oil sands is:

• Electricity: ~100–200 kWh per tonne of CO₂ captured
• Heat/steam (often the bigger requirement): ~1–3 MWh thermal per tonne of CO₂
• Compression and transport: additional energy for pipelines and injection

Using a middle estimate for 10–12 Mt CO₂/year, Pathways could require roughly:

Electricity

About 1–2.5 terawatt-hours (TWh) per year of electricity.

All of this has the whiff of a pipedream, if you will forgive the pun. It seems like a fraud being perpetrated on the Canadian public, given the Carney government’s current penchant for gutting environmental standards in order to fortify Canada and keep it intact. 

Taken together, the changes are the latest in a series of decisions by the Carney government to remove or soften major climate policies at the federal level.

Last year, the government scrapped a planned emissions cap for the oil and gas sector, and cancelled the national consumer carbon tax-and-rebate scheme. It also ditched plans for mandated sales of zero-emission vehicles, and signalled it will change national electricity regulations to allow for more gas-fired power plants. 

There will always be apologist for everything the Caney government does. I, for one, have no intention of joining that politically-blinded group.