A Florida-based team has represented the Eastern Conference in the Stanley Cup Final each of the last six years. The Tampa Bay Lightning will attempt to extend the Sunshine State’s streak to seven this postseason.

Tampa Bay is the state’s only hope as the Florida Panthers, who appeared in each of the last three Stanley Cup Finals and won the past two, failed to qualify for the playoffs for the first time in seven seasons. The Lightning, who won back-to-back championships in 2020 and 2021 before losing to the Colorado Avalanche in the Final the following year, begin their quest in the 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs with a first-round series against the Montreal Canadiens that gets underway Sunday.

The Lightning and Canadiens both finished the regular season with 106 points, but the former earned second place in the Atlantic Division by virtue of having more regulation victories. The clubs split their four-game season series, with Tampa Bay winning the first two meetings and Montreal taking the next two.

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Neither team enters their fifth postseason matchup on a roll. The Lightning lost four of their final six regular-season games, while the Canadiens dropped two of their last three after going 10-1-0 over their previous 11 contests.

Tampa Bay won three of its first four playoff series against Montreal, beginning with a four-game sweep in 2004 en route to the first Stanley Cup championship in franchise history. The Canadiens returned the favor 10 years later, but the Lightning won their showdown the following postseason and then defeated Montreal in the 2021 Stanley Cup Final in five games.

NHL betting odds at the major sportsbooks see the Lightning as the favorites in the first-round series, with futures betting odds in the -235 to -260 range. Meanwhile, the Canadiens are priced from +195 to +210. Learn how to read betting odds here.

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Pick: Lightning to advance

The Canadiens had an excellent regular season, finishing with their highest point total (106) since recording 110 and winning the Atlantic Division title in 2014-15. However, they were defeated by the Lightning in six games during their second-round series that postseason.

And even though Montreal won the final two meetings between the division rivals this campaign, I can’t see that success continuing in this matchup. Tampa Bay has a plethora of offensive weapons that will be looking to atone for their subpar performance against the Panthers in its first-round loss last postseason.

Nikita Kucherov is a notorious playoff performer who owns numerous franchise postseason records, including most points in one playoff season (34 in 2020) and most overall playoff goals (53), assists (114) and points (167). But the 32-year-old Russian right wing, who eclipsed the 100-point plateau for the fourth consecutive season and sixth time in his career with 130 this campaign, registered only four assists in Tampa Bay’s five-game series defeat in 2025.

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Kucherov matched his career high with a team-leading 44 goals this season despite missing six games, while Jake Guentzel netted 38 goals and recorded a personal-best 88 points. Meanwhile, defenseman Darren Raddysh came up with the best offensive effort of his five-year career as he collected 22 goals, 48 assists and 70 points.

Montreal has a dangerous one-two punch with Nick Suzuki (career-high 101 points) and Cole Caufield (personal-best 51 goals, second in NHL entering Thursday), while Juraj Slafkovsky (30 goals, 43 assists, 73 points) and 2025 Calder Trophy-winning defenseman Lane Hutson (12, 66, 78) also set career highs. But 2021 Conn Smyth Trophy recipient Andrei Vasilevskiy will be in the crease for the Lightning, and his playoff credentials outweigh Canadiens rookie goaltender Jakub Dobes’ accomplishments (29 wins, 2.78 goals-against average, .901 save percentage) this season. Tampa Bay should end its streak of three straight first-round exits.

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