Skyrocketing fuel prices in March are putting pressure on trucking and parcel shipping environments, but both industries are benefiting by wielding more pricing power.

According to a quarterly analysis from transportation cost management and auditing company AFS Logistics and TD Cowen, parcel carriers are capitalizing on the surging fuel costs, leading to pricing records across ground and air shipping.

And trucking companies are feeling the rate tailwinds as well, as they benefit from a combination of the escalating diesel prices and a focus on higher-margin freight, alongside more carrier exits and a tighter regulatory environment.

“While the term ‘new normal’ may conjure unpleasant memories of the Covid era, businesses should brace themselves for a new normal of elevated fuel costs,” says Andy Dyer, CEO of AFS Logistics in a statement. “Not only do the structural causes that spurred this spike take time to unwind, the related pricing changes, particularly in parcel, tend to be ‘sticky’ with effects that linger even after the underlying price of fuel recedes.”

Parcel couriers “have no reason to stop pulling that lever” on surcharges

The Q2 TD Cowen/AFS Freight Index, which measures predictive pricing for truckload, less-than-truckload (LTL) and parcel transportation markets across 1,800 companies, expects the growing strength in pricing across these industries to further escalate in the April-to-June period.

The TD Cowen/AFS Express Parcel Freight Index is projected to reach a record high of 10.3 percent in the second quarter, increasing 1.7 percent from the prior quarter and 6.4 percent year over year.

This means that on average, shippers are paying 10.3 percent above baseline levels to move goods via air throughout the U.S. in January 2018.

The Ground Parcel Freight Index is forecast to reach 42 percent in the quarter, a 1.9 percent jump sequentially and a 6.6 percent increase over the year prior.

The projection follows a quarter that saw ground fuel surcharges rise 26.7 percent, contributing to a then-record 39.3 percent index rate.

Mingshu Bates, chief analytics officer and president of parcel at AFS Logistics, pointed out that FedEx and UPS have long leveraged fuel surcharges to drive revenue even during times with relatively cheap fuel prices.

But the first-ever imposition of an 8 percent fuel charge by the U.S. Postal Service and a 3.5 percent fuel and logistics surcharge for certain Amazon sellers indicate that more players are willing to follow in the longtime parcel leaders’ footsteps.

On average, while cumulative inflation jumped 15.1 percent from 2022 to 2026, a five-pound package shipped via ground from Atlanta to a residential address in New York City escalated 41.8 percent over that same time, according to AFS.

Helping drive that massive gap was an average fuel surcharge that soared 131 percent in the four-year period.

With oil prices front and center in the global logistics conversation, “carriers have no reason to stop pulling that lever,” Bates said.

However, Bates highlighted that there are still opportunities for customers to navigate inconsistencies in how the parcel companies operate.

“Larger express shippers wield sufficient leverage to get concessions that small-to-medium customers cannot,” Bates said. “Ground shows a rare case in which the carriers are not moving in lockstep, with UPS tightening pricing but FedEx deploying deeper discounts to pursue volume—diverging practices that threaten to erode overall pricing discipline over time.”

Trucking sees pricing tailwinds as supply-side correction deepens

Rate increases are not the best sign for the retailers, brands and end consumers, but for trucking carriers, they provide respite to a nearly four-year freight recession that appears to be finally stabilizing. However, the early signs of recovery are driven more by tightening capacity and a steady supply-side correction than a broad demand rebound.

As more carriers and drivers are taken out of service amid an overabundance of trucks and a White House crackdown on trucking compliance, upward pricing pressures continued at the start of 2026. The war in Iran further complicated transportation costs, with average diesel fuel prices increasing 10 percent year-over-year.

Alongside the fuel and capacity factors, truckload companies like Knight-Swift, J.B. Hunt and Schneider endured winter storm disruptions pushed line haul cost per shipment up 10.2 percent from the quarter prior. That surge cannot be explained by distance alone, AFS notes, as miles per shipment rose just 8.2 percent.

Looking ahead to the second quarter, the Q2 Truckload Freight Index is projected to reach 10.1 percent above the January 2018 baseline—the first three-month period above 10 percent since 2022. The period improved on the strong 9 percent index level calculated in the first quarter.

Meanwhile, the LTL firms, which consist of FedEx Freight, Old Dominion, XPO and Saia, have been aided in the first quarter by a reversal in trends of declining weight and cost per shipment. Weight shipped exhibited the first quarterly gain in two years, up 3.8 percent quarter over quarter, according to AFS. Cost per shipment went up 3 percent.

Unlike the truckload index, which calculates rate per mile, the LTL index is calculated by rate per pound.

Looking ahead, the LTL Freight Rate Per Pound Index is projected to reach a record high of 68.4 percent, increasing 3.2 percent year over year. This marks the 10th consecutive quarterly year-over-year increase for the metric.

“For quarter after quarter, LTL pricing stability seemed to hinge on carriers resisting the temptation to ‘buy’ volumes with pricing concessions as they weathered a stubbornly long demand trough,” says Mich Fabriga, vice president of LTL pricing at AFS Logistics, in a statement. “Now fuel prices are primed to make a lasting impact and we’re finally seeing some signs of recovering demand. Positive signals like expanding manufacturing activity align with positive weight and cost per shipment trends in our data.”