For thousands of post-secondary students graduating across New Brunswick, the next big decision isn’t just what career to pursue, it’s also where to build their future.

As the province works to attract and retain young talent, many graduates are weighing opportunity and affordability before deciding where to put down roots.

Julia Vencio, who is studying psychology at UNB Fredericton, says she plans on moving out of the province once she gets her degree.

“I would probably be more inclined to be here and stay here if there were more opportunities in my field,” she said.

“I would go back if I got a job offer here or was pursuing higher education here.”

She’s not alone.

A recent Fraser Institute report found Atlantic Canada lost nearly 12 per cent of its population aged 15 to 39 to net outmigration before the pandemic. While COVID-19 temporarily reversed this trend, researchers say migration patterns are now returning to pre-pandemic levels.

“One of the challenges in New Brunswick is for over a decade, there’s been no growth in private sector employment opportunities. It’s a stagnant market,” said Herb Emery, UNB Vaughan Chair in Regional Economics.

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“If we don’t have those jobs in New Brunswick, then we shouldn’t be shocked that some of our best, brightest, most entrepreneurial and most ambitious want to go to bigger markets.”

He says many young people leave for larger centres, which can offer more career options and higher incomes. He also points to housing affordability, saying young people have been increasingly priced out of home ownership.

The result, he warns, could be a growing strain on health care and “[educating] kids for export.”

“We haven’t seen any investment in what you would call industrial development that would have created those high-skill, high-value jobs that New Brunswickers are leaving to take in places like Alberta,” he said.

Emery says New Brunswick lacks a diversified export base and suggests policymakers need to think beyond simply expanding existing large employers.

“The choice is going to be, do you let those big companies get bigger, or are you going to try and find medium-sized companies that can scale?” he said.

At UNB Saint John, student leaders say many students would like to stay if they can see a future in New Brunswick.

“Many students do want to stay in New Brunswick, but they’re looking for that confidence that they can build a successful future here after graduation,” said Rebecca Isaac, University of New Brunswick Students’ Representative Council president.

“Students who can see a clear path from university to employment are definitely more likely to stay in the province…. If we’re investing in students, we will be able to invest in the future of our province.”

Business leaders argue those opportunities do exist.

Shannon Merrifield, the Saint John Region Chamber of Commerce’s CEO, says there are indeed “employers looking for talent.”

“There’s logistics, there’s expansion and growth with the energy sector opportunities. We have new development there. There’s health-care innovation. There’s technology and digital industries,” she said.

UNB student Vera Mascarenhas is among those who do see a future in New Brunswick.

“The Concurrent Programme of Education is actually a big reason why I chose to stay in New Brunswick,” she said.
“I feel like sticking closer with the community obviously helps me form stronger bonds.”

As for graduates moving to larger centres for opportunities, she argues the grass isn’t always greener on the other side.

“When you go to a larger city, you perhaps have more opportunities, but also the cost of living is much higher,” she said.

“Sometimes things are better at home.”

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