NATO officials are also now weighing the possibility of moving existing anti-drone countermeasures to the region after receiving requests from Bulgaria, Romania and Turkey, diplomats told Politico. The three countries are also cooperating on an initiative to safeguard freedom of navigation in the Black Sea, which Bulgaria’s prime minister Radev plans to present to the European Union this week.

Black Sea restrictions and warfare

Naval forces from NATO countries have avoided military exercises in the Black Sea since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, in accordance with the 1936 Montreux Convention that grants Turkey authority to restrict passage of ships through the straits leading into the Black Sea. This Turkish enforcement has also prevented Russia from reinforcing or rotating its Black Sea fleet during the war.

Despite lacking much of a conventional navy, Ukraine has managed to largely neutralize Russia’s warships and disrupt Russian-linked shipping and ports by using aerial and sea drones. But Russia has countered with its own drone attacks on Ukrainian ports and vessels, along with sometimes targeting ships from other countries in the region.

Since the fall of 2023, Ukrainian ships have typically stuck to sea lanes running through Romanian, Bulgarian, or Turkish territorial waters in the Black Sea, according to the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Such Black Sea shipping is especially crucial for Ukraine’s agricultural exports of grain, accounting for well over 90 percent.

The recent spate of probable Russian attacks in the Black Sea is now disrupting shipping carrying Ukraine’s latest harvest to the rest of Europe, with some cargo being rerouted overland or through the River Danube, Politico reported.

These unprecedented attacks in waters near NATO countries coincide with a growing wave of incidents attributed to Russian hybrid or gray-zone warfare tactics. Such incidents include an attempted explosive drone attack on Ukrainian cargo aircraft at Leipzig Airport in Germany and a Russian drone boat loaded with explosives found floating near a Romanian offshore gas platform in the Black Sea.

But since the start of the war, Turkey, Romania and Bulgaria have continued upgrading their navies while forging closer cooperation on maritime security, according to Carnegie. The growing dangers for shipping in the Black Sea will likely accelerate this cooperative trend—and for the NATO alliance as a whole.