The Thursday MLB schedule features nine games, with the evening National League games including Cardinals vs. Braves and Padres vs. Dodgers. In the American League, the Tampa Bay Rays will be looking to cushion their AL East lead over the Yankees as they seek an eighth consecutive victory and a three-game sweep of the Royals in Kansas City at 7:40 p.m. ET.  

Fans who want to bet on MLB have a lot of options, and home run prop bets are always fun to follow. SportsLine expert Adam Thompson has been analyzing the matchups and MLB odds for Thursday, and he has revealed his best bets to hit a home run today.

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Thompson was one of the earliest SportsLine experts from 2016-19 and rejoined the company in 2026 following a stint as the primary betting analyst for the Gambling.com Group. An analytics-driven exploiter of matchups, Thompson specializes in the NFL, MLB and the NBA. He also has delivered consistent winners in college basketball, horse racing and golf. Over the past two seasons, he’s up over 70 units in MLB and more than 60 units in the NBA at sports betting apps.

Here’s who Thompson likes to go deep on Thursday, July 2.

Best home run picks for Thursday, July 2

Kerry Carpenter, Tigers (+427)

Rangers starter Nathan Eovaldi has been sharp in his past two outings, not allowing a home run in either. Prior to that, though, he’d allowed at least one home run in five straight games, two dingers in two of those. He’s allowed up to four homers in a game this season. Eovaldi has allowed more homers to left-handed hitters, and nearly all of them allowed have been to hitters in the Nos. 1-4 spots in the order. Three Tigers — Kevin McGonigle, Carpenter and Riley Greene — check both boxes.

Carpenter gets the nod here. Of his 16 home runs, 15 came against right-handed pitching. Over the past week, he’s drilled three over the fence, tops among his teammates.

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Austin Riley, Braves (+571)

Riley is in an epic slump at the moment. Over his past seven games, the third baseman is just 2-for-25 (.080) with no homers and nine strikeouts. On the season, he’s batting just .207, way below his career .265 average. He also has just eight home runs in 84 games, well off the pace for the 33-plus dingers he hit each year from 2021-23.

It’s a risk to back Riley to do anything with the bat lately, but this is a good spot to buy low. Riley is a lifetime 2-for-5 against Cardinals starter Dustin May. Both hits are home runs. Six of the seven home runs May has allowed this season have been on the road. May gave up two homers in his last start, on the road at Kansas City, in only two innings of work.

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