Good morning. We are now into the final week of campaigning for the Scottish parliament, Welsh Senedd and English local elections. Keir Starmer had been planning a big speech today, but he, and other political leaders, are today focusing on their response to the Golders Green stabbing and the antisemitism threat facing Britain’s Jewish community – described by as “national security emergency” by Jonathan Hall KC, the government’s independent reviewer of terror legislation. Here is our overnight story. And here is our live blog by Taz Ali.

Taz will be covering most of the political reaction to that story, and so that won’t be something I will be covering here. (And because criminal proceedings are active, comments relating to the attack won’t be allowed below the line, I’m afraid.)

Instead, let’s start with the elections, and a member of the House of Lords called Robert Hayward. Hayward is a Conservative and former MP but at Westminster he is best known as an elections specialist who produces detailed forecasts ahead of elections. They are not always perfect – no forecast is – but they are well-informed, and politically neutral, and Hayward is one of the very few people doing forecasting of this kind whose views are taken seriously by the main political parties. He won’t necessarily tell you exactly what will happen; but he is worth reading if you want to know what the politicos expect to happen (which is useful intelligence because often election results are assessed by how they match up against expectations).

Last night Hayward revealed his forecast on ITV’s Peston.

And this is how Hayward explains it in his summary.

England all figures given are net losses and gains

Labour will lose 1850 seats

The losses will be nationwide

What impact on Sir Keir’s role? Given S Times comment re 1500 losses and ‘nervous breakdown’ this is bad news for Sir Keir and Labour.

Reform will be biggest gainer from both Labour and Conservatives, overwhelmingly outside London. They will gain 1550 seats

Will their national equivalent vote be lower than last year? I believe it will be

Conservatives will lose 600 seats many in councils deferred from last year. These seats were previously contested in the vaccine bounce year of 2021.

Do they gain any notable councils or stop Reform from taking control of target councils? Yes

Have they improved on the national equivalent vote last year? About static

Greens will gain 500 seats in London and middle class areas of other cities

Can they take any mayoralties or control any councils? Yes definitely mayoralty possibly a council or two

Lib Dems will gain 150 seats but will need to gain councils to be involved ‘in the conversation’.

Will national equivalent vote share reflect decline in poll position. Yes

Have they lost their position as part of the protest parties? Up to a point.

Independents will gain 250 seats

Many of these will be in east London, Birmingham and Lancs

Other forecasts are available too. I will post more on those soon.

Parliament is not sitting today, and there is not much in the diary. But we won’t be short of politics.

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