A trio of federal byelections are set for Monday in Quebec, Ontario and British Columbia.

Two of the ridings are considered fairly safe Liberal seats, both of which were vacated by former cabinet ministers. In Quebec, where voters had elected a Conservative four consecutive times, the Tories may have a difficult time holding their ground.

That race in Chicoutimi-Le Fjord is expected to be the mostly closely watched, and comes as the province’s general election campaign is underway.

That seat opened up after Prime Minister Mark Carney named Conservative MP Richard Martel to the Senate, and the Liberals and Bloc Quebecois are seen as in the hunt to flip the seat, though no one is writing off the Tories.

Cégep de Chicoutimi law professor Régis Gaudreault is running for the Conservatives, while the Bloc nominated Caroline Dubé, who previously headed up the office of neighbouring Bloc MP Mario Simard.

The Liberals are running dairy farmer Daniel Gobeil.

Martel won re-election in 2025 by nearly 1,500 votes in a close three-way race against the Bloc Quebecois and the Liberals.

Pollster Dan Arnold said the riding’s status as a battleground means there’s less risk for Poilievre if the Conservatives lose, but that’s only if the party remains competitive.

“I don’t think anybody would be surprised if the Conservatives lose that seat, and I think it’d be hard to really fault Poilievre for that. When the popular incumbent leaves, you expect the vote to fall a little bit,” he said.

“Maybe it’s concerning that Martel decided to to leave to go to the Senate, and if they drop by more than a couple points [or] if they end up a distant third in that one, that would be a cause for concern in terms of their long term viability [in] Quebec.”

Liberal Denis Lemieux won the riding in 2015, but resigned two years later. Martel won the subsequent byelection in 2018.

The Bloc had held the seat from 2004 to 2011, and the NDP held it for a single term after wining it in the ‘Orange Wave’ election of 2011.

Need a primer on this byelection? Former Bloc MP Kristina Michaud writes all about the stakes in this exclusive op-ed.

The other two races could prove interesting, as well.

Jonathan Wilkinson easily won re-election in North Vancouver-Capilano last year but resigned this past spring to become Canada’s ambassador to the European Union. Braeden Caley, who was mostly recently Carney’s deputy of chief staff, is running for the Liberals in the riding.

The seat is usually a two-party race between the Liberals and Conservatives, though the Carney government’s support of a new oil pipeline to the West Coast has some political watchers wondering if the NDP will enjoy a boost in support.

Before resigning earlier this summer, Nate Erskine-Smith had represented the central Toronto riding of Beaches-East York since 2015. He announced earlier this year that would resign to run for the Ontario Liberal leadership. He changed course on running for that position after losing a nomination race for the provincial byelection in Scarborough Southwest.

His longtime constituency staffer Tanveer Shahnawaz won the Liberal nomination race in July.

Pollsters describe the riding as one of Toronto’s most progressive and expect the NDP’s Shannon Devine to emerge as Shahnawaz’s main rival, even though the Conservatives finished second in 2025.

Stay tuned here for liveblog coverage of all three votes tonight.

Polls for the races in Ontario and Quebec close at 9:30 p.m. ET. In the Vancouver race, polls close at 7 PM local time, or 10 ET.

The liveblog will start below around 9 p.m. ET.

with files from the Canadian Press