Ottawa voters are beginning to make up their minds, and the latest polling suggests many are looking beyond the incumbent. 

A new poll from Liaison Strategies, commissioned by Ottawa Compass and iPolitics, finds Mayor Mark Sutcliffe still leading the field with 38 per cent support among decided and leaning voters. But David Valentin, principal at Liaison Strategies, says the broader political environment remains challenging for the mayor as dissatisfaction with city leadership persists. 

Kitchissippi Ward Coun. Jeff Leiper sits in second place at 31 per cent, down one point from the last month’s survey. Homebuilder Alex Lawson posted the largest gain in voters with support polling at 21 per cent, a seven per cent increase since the last report. 

Economist and community organizer Neil Saravanamuttoo trails at six per cent. 

The survey polled one thousand Ottawa residents between Jun 13 to 15. It carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

“People are happy to engage with the city… but they really just don’t trust the council,” Valentin said in an interview with iPolitics. 

Valentin said voters remain frustrated with council’s handling of some of the “big conversation” issues that got Sutcliffe elected in 2022. That includes transit, governance, and major projects such as Lansdowne.

While Sutcliffe continues to perform best in the city’s suburban ring, Valentin said he trails badly in Central Ottawa.

“The mayor is doing well in the ring around the core of the city,” Valentin said. “But, his numbers are beginning to fall in some of these places.”

The poll also highlights issues driving voter concerns. Housing remains the top municipal issue at 26 per cent, followed by transit (18 per cent), traffic (16 per cent), inflation (11 per cent), homelessness (10 per cent) and crime at seven per cent. 

The same goes for Leiper, Valentin added, who is trailing only a few points behind Sutcliffe but also saw a slight decline in support compared to last month. 

Valentin flagged the presence of Neil Saravanamuttoo as a complicating factor for Leiper, noting the two candidates are competing for the same pool of progressive voters. “This is the challenge for Leiper,” he said.

Lawson, who saw the most visible shift, saw growth concentrated in western Ottawa, where Valentin said the candidate is establishing a regional support.  

“I think all of this combined really paints a different geographic portraits we saw last month as well,” Valentin said. 

Undecided voters 

Valentin said the good news from this month’s polling is that undecided voters rate have gone down. 

Currently, 37 per cent of voters remain undecided, down from 41 per cent last month.  

Among undecided mayoral voters, only 32 per cent approve of Sutcliffe, while 65 per cent disapprove. 

The survey also found that 26 per cent say the city is moving in the right direction, while 48 per cent feel the other way. 

“People are making up their minds,” he said. “That is the pattern of behaviour we expect… We’re on track where we’re supposed to be right now.”

While the race is steadily showing signs of becoming a three-way between Sutcliffe, Leiper and Lawson, Valentin said Saranvanamuttoo could follow a similar trajectory as Lawson. 

“We’re sort of seeing Saranvanamuttoo near where Lawson began in April,” he said, noting that Saranvanamuttoo could still lock in a place in the race, but would come at “someone’s expense.” 

“Saravanamuttoo could do it simply by convincing undecided voters… but because the share of decided vote has gone down, all the other candidates will lose vote share proportionally,” he said.