The Ksi Lisims LNG project, from which liquefied natural gas would be sold to a German utility under a deal announced Wednesday, would increase B.C.’s annual greenhouse gas emissions by between six and eight per cent, according to calculations by CBC News.

Under the deal, the German utility committed to purchasing a million tonnes of LNG per year, out of a projected total annual capacity of 12 million tonnes for the facility.

The numbers are based on a 2024 Environment and Climate Change Canada report on the project, which included estimates of the emissions from extracting and transporting the gas to the facility, as well as emissions from construction and operation of the facility itself.

The report presents two scenarios: one in which the facility is connected to the B.C. Hydro grid — the lower-emissions scenario — and another in which the facility is powered by electricity generated from gas.

Under the grid-connected scenario, emissions from constructing the facility would be 58,877 tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) equivalent per year, while yearly emissions associated with extraction, transport to the facility and operation would be just under 3.5 million tonnes. 

If gas is used to generate electricity, construction emissions rise to 212,109 tonnes per year, while extraction, transport and operation emissions would be just over 5.1 million tonnes annually.

Total greenhouse gas emissions in B.C. in 2023, the most recent year for which figures were available, were 61.1 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent, according to the provincial government.

Ksi Lisims LNG, which is co-owned by Western LNG, Rockies LNG Partners and the Nisga’a Nation, signed a memorandum of understanding earlier this year on how and when B.C. Hydro will deliver electricity to the proposed floating LNG facility, the B.C. government said in its news release Wednesday announcing the deal.

CBC News asked both the B.C. Ministry of Energy and Climate Solutions and B.C. Hydro for a copy of that agreement, but did not receive a response by deadline.

Once Ksi Lisims is connected to the grid, it would be expected to be net-zero, the government said.

Carbon offsets would be partly used to achieve this, according to the federal report. 

‘The climate counts all of it’

The B.C. government’s environmental assessment only included emissions associated with the construction and operation of the facility. It did not include emissions from gas extraction and transportation to the facility, which is by far the larger amount. 

On that basis, the B.C. government estimated that emissions from Ksi Lisims would represent 0.39 per cent of the provincial total under a grid-connected scenario and 2.9 per cent using gas-generated power. 

Roughly three-quarters of emissions from natural gas occur when it is burned at its final destination, according to the International Institute for Sustainable Development. 

Those emissions don’t count toward B.C.’s or Canada’s total, but go into the atmosphere just the same, said Nancy Olewiler, a professor emeritus in Simon Fraser University’s school of public policy.

“The climate counts all of it.”

Unclear if project would reduce global emissions

The project’s proponents argue that even if Ksi Lisims increases B.C.’s and Canada’s greenhouse gas emissions, it’s still an overall win for the planet because it would replace dirtier forms of energy such as coal, and its product would have lower-intensity emissions than LNG from other countries.

“That’s certainly possible, but it depends on a lot of things happening. And as we know from the last three months, things can get screwed up really fast,” Olewiler said.

Those factors include whether Ksi Lisims LNG is cost competitive with other countries – and whether the fuel source LNG replaces is coal or renewables. 

The federal assessment took a similar view, stating it was difficult to say whether the Ksi Lisims project would add to overall global emissions.

“This will largely depend on who is buying the LNG and where it will be used, what fuel sources LNG replaces, and the pace of international transitions towards net-zero,” it said.

In a recent article for the Canadian Climate Institute co-authored with Dale Beugin, Olewiler noted it is renewable energy replacing coal in some countries. 

“If I were a developing country, I would be building renewables and domestic capacity like crazy because … you have a world power disrupting your ability to keep people’s lights on in your country,” she said.

The deal announced Wednesday would see Germany’s Securing Energy For Europe (SEFE) purchase a million tonnes of LNG per year from Ksi Lisims for up to 20 years. 

Ksi Lisims would have a capacity of 12 million tonnes per year if constructed. No final investment decision on the project has been made.