I will offer a peek behind the curtain this week at Overreactions HQ. During Sunday’s games, a few of my editors and I bat ideas back and forth regarding what we’re going to write about in each week’s overreactions column. Let’s just say the list we were working on at 3 p.m. ET this Sunday looked a lot different from the list below

Another wild Sunday in the NFL saw the Patriots snag a huge win in Buffalo for the second year in a row, the Giants end the day in sole possession of first place in the NFC East, the Bears win their second game in a row with two different backup quarterbacks and the Cowboys win the battle of Texas to drop one of the preseason Super Bowl favorites to 0-4 thanks to 17 catches by CeeDee Lamb.

Just the way you drew it up, right?

It’s our Week 4 overreactions column, where we look at five potential takeaways and judge them as legitimate stances or irrational exaggerations. Plus, we hit a few fantasy football overreactions at the bottom. So here are the overreactions, fresh out of the oven:

Jump to:
Patriots set for AFC East repeat?
Eagles not going to make the playoffs?
Rams set up for long win streak?
Ryans on the hot seat in Houston?
Chiefs are back to being NFL’s best?
Fantasy overreactions

The Patriots will repeat as AFC East champions

After a week of sky-is-falling, “What’s Wrong With Drake Maye?” takes, the Patriots rolled into Buffalo’s new stadium to face the unbeaten Bills and Josh Allen. New England came in with the confidence of a team that started 1-2 last season before reeling off 10 straight wins (including Week 5 in Buffalo) en route to the Super Bowl. The trip to Buffalo occurred a week earlier this season, and it was a nail-biter that turned on a go-ahead touchdown catch from Efton Chism III and an Allen interception on a deep ball he probably shouldn’t have thrown.

As a result, the Bills are 3-1 and the Patriots 2-2, with the surprising Raiders coming to Foxborough next weekend. Maye was 22-for-37 for 269 passing yards, three touchdowns, an interception and three fumbles, one of which the Bills recovered. He also had 54 rushing yards on eight carries. It was an eventful day for New England’s slumping third-year quarterback, but ultimately a winning one. And that, more than anything, was what he and the Patriots needed.

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Efton Chism III makes eye-popping, one-handed TD grab to put Pats ahead

Verdict: OVERREACTION

Despite the win, New England’s problems aren’t going away any time soon. They’re extremely well-coached and tough, which they showed Sunday, and it’s clear after this game that Buffalo is in for a race and not an AFC East runaway. But the Bills were a wagon through the first three weeks of the season, and so far, they have avoided the same kind of lousy injury luck affecting the Patriots.

Wide receiver A.J. Brown remains out a couple more weeks. Guard Mike Onwenu’s absence is straining the offensive line. The Patriots had to play Sunday without star cornerback Christian Gonzalez and defensive tackle Christian Barmore. They lost receiver Mack Hollins, who’s a very important player on their offense, to a calf injury Sunday. And the schedule looks a lot tougher than last year’s.

I respect who the Patriots are and believe they’ll hang in this race for most, if not all, of this season. But Sunday’s result aside, I believe even more that this season sets up better for the Bills than the Pats, who had a lot go right in 2025 and have had a lot go wrong so far in 2026.

The Eagles will miss the playoffs

For most of the early Sunday window, it looked as if the Rams would be the subject of this particular write-up. The Eagles led the Super Bowl favorites 20-10 with four minutes left in the game, and the Rams were in danger of dropping to 1-3 after all that preseason hype. But L.A. scored 14 points in those final four minutes against a Vic Fangio defense that ranks among the most disappointing units (relative to expectations) in the NFL this season.

As a result, the Eagles are 2-2 and tied for second in the NFC East with the Cowboys, who won a last-minute thriller in Houston thanks to Lamb’s performance. They’re one game behind the 3-1 Giants, who held off Arizona thanks to three Jameis Winston touchdown passes. We love it when the NFC East gets loopy.

Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION

Philadelphia doesn’t look very good. Running back Saquon Barkley left this game because of a hamstring injury. Receiver DeVonta Smith was ruled out Friday because of his own hamstring injury. The offense looks as stuck in the mud as it did last season, and the defense, which was supposed to carry the Eagles through the offense’s inevitable early-season growing pains, has not gotten the stops it needs. Meanwhile, Dallas’ offense looks kind of unstoppable, and the Giants … laugh all you want, but John Harbaugh is the coach there now. They will win the games they’re supposed to win — and some they aren’t.

If the Eagles keep struggling with these injury issues, and their offensive line continues to look like a shadow of its dominant 2024 self, they could be the third-best team in their own division. And it would be tough to make the playoffs from that spot.

The Rams won’t lose again until December

The comeback in Philly might have saved the Rams’ season. Playing without injured veteran defensive stars Myles Garrett and Aaron Donald and playing their first game since Week 1 with star wideout Puka Nacua, the Rams stole victory from the talons of defeat Sunday and surely breathed an organization-wide sigh of relief.

They’ll get an angry Bills team at home next week, and the Bills must travel cross-country for it. After that, the Rams’ schedule is the Cardinals at home, at Raiders, Chargers at home, at Commanders, at Cardinals, and Packers at home on Thanksgiving Eve before hosting the Chiefs on Dec. 3. Sunday might not only have saved the Rams’ season, but it has a chance to spark the kind of run so many foresaw when Los Angeles opened the season as shockingly heavy Super Bowl favorites.

Verdict: OVERREACTION

As I’ve said, I think the Rams are good. I wouldn’t be surprised if they won the Super Bowl. I just don’t think they’re this unbeatable, historically amazing monster team. Their problems are real. Garrett won’t be back for many weeks. Donald could be back next week, but he’s also 35 and didn’t play the previous two seasons. He was supposed to be a luxury, but now they’re counting on him. Yeah, Nacua is back, which is awesome for the Rams, but his playing style tends to leave him vulnerable to further missed games.

Nothing we’ve seen from the Rams this season — even Sunday’s comeback — should make anyone think that they can’t get tripped up, regardless of their light upcoming schedule. They will have to slug this season out just like everyone else. And if the Rams end up on top at the end, it’ll be because they overcame their inevitable issues as the season went along, not because they won the offseason.

DeMeco Ryans is on the hot seat

The Texans lost to the Cowboys on Sunday to fall to 0-4. Only one team has started 0-4 and made the playoffs: the 1992 San Diego Chargers. Stan Humphries and Marion Butts ain’t walking through that door, you guys.

The Texans have a ton of problems. They still can’t run the ball. Their defense, which was all-universe last season, is giving up more than 27 points per game. The Jaguars, who are three games ahead of Houston in the AFC South, look like one of the best teams in the league. The Texans are staring up from a hole they likely can’t escape, and they’re doing so after only four weeks of a season in which they entered with the highest of hopes.

Verdict: OVERREACTION

Ryans is in his fourth season as Texans head coach and reached the divisional round of the playoffs in each of the first three. He is a beloved franchise icon, adored by fans and team ownership. Yes, the Texans came into this season expecting big things. Yes, C.J. Stroud’s future in Houston could be in question if he doesn’t sign an extension in the next six months or so. But I must believe Ryans is allowed one down year.

The Chiefs are back to being the best team in the NFL

Kansas City improved to 4-0 with a tough 30-27 victory over an extremely frisky Raiders team. Free agent signee Kenneth Walker III already has 537 rushing yards. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes looks healthy enough that you have to remind yourself that he had ACL surgery 10 months ago. Steve Spagnuolo’s defense is making plays with young guys on the back end. The Chiefs have won every game they’ve played despite not having injured left tackle Josh Simmons for any of them. They’re off next week to rest up and return to keep winning and frustrating those who thought we were done with them.

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Kenneth Walker scores 2 TDs in 19 seconds for the Chiefs

Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION

There are no perfect teams. There are other very good ones, even in the AFC. The Jaguars might be the best team in the league when all is said and done. So could the Bills. The 49ers might be, too! The Browns … nah, let’s not go there. But none of the other very good teams in the league has the history of high-level winning that Andy Reid and Mahomes have together. So, if you want to tell me that Kansas City is the best, I’d have a hard time mounting an argument that I truly believe in.

Quick-hitter fantasy overreactions

• Zay Flowers will finish as a top-five fantasy WR. OVERREACTION. If Flowers is on the field, Lamar Jackson and the Ravens will not stop throwing to him. But Jackson didn’t finish Sunday’s game, and Flowers has already missed one game so far because of injury. Flowers is awesome, but his history suggests that he won’t hold up under a high-volume workload. Top 15? Sure. Top five? Too much.

• If healthy, Tee Higgins has WR1 overall potential every week Ja’Marr Chase misses. NOT AN OVERREACTION. Chase left Sunday’s game early because of a concussion. There’s no way to predict how much time he’ll miss, if any. What we know is that Higgins ended with 11 catches for 157 yards against the Jaguars and that Joe Burrow thinks he’s awesome. If Higgins can overcome the abductor injury he suffered late Sunday, fire him up with extreme confidence if Chase misses time.

• Sell Romeo Doubs this week if you have him. NOT AN OVERREACTION. Two touchdowns? Nine targets? Six catches for 58 yards? A.J. Brown is coming back at some point, and Doubs hasn’t been the most reliable guy this season. If you can get equivalent value for a fantasy WR2 or WR3, do it.

• Kyren Williams has separated himself from Blake Corum and will be a fantasy RB1 this season. NOT AN OVERREACTION. But if you have Williams and don’t have Corum, you need to get Corum. Because if something were to happen to Williams, you have a one-for-one replacement in what should be an elite offense.

• You need to add Keon Coleman this week. OVERREACTION. I mean, you can if you want to. It’s a cool story, and I’m happy for the youngster after the team’s owner opened the offseason by basically telling the world Coleman was a draft mistake. You could do worse than add Coleman to your bench. But I don’t think you have to. Josh Allen will spread the ball.

• Will Reichard is the only startable Viking when Justin Jefferson doesn’t play. NOT AN OVERREACTION. I won’t say I spent the whole summer wondering why everyone thought Kyler Murray was going to light up the league just because he left Arizona, but it was definitely a guy who looks and sounds a lot like me.

• Emanuel Wilson is the Seahawks’ RB to roster the rest of the year. OVERREACTION. Zach Charbonnet is on his way back, Jadarian Price was a first-round pick… heck, this is the team that kept Kenneth Walker III in a committee all those years when it turns out he was obviously capable of dominating, right?